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A recent peer-reviewed study published in The Lancet Regional Health – Europe estimates that the number of patients eligible for radioligand therapies (RLTs) in the EU-27 could increase from 10,700–13,200 in 2025 to 125,900–182,600 by 2035. To assess the implications for healthcare systems, the analysis also modeled treatment uptake scenarios in Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. The findings highlight the potential scale of demand over the next decade and provide insights for long-term planning of the infrastructure, workforce, and healthcare capacity needed to ensure access to RLTs.
Radioligand therapies are targeted cancer treatments that deliver radiation directly to tumor cells while limiting damage to surrounding healthy tissue. As these therapies become available for additional cancer types and earlier stages of disease, the number of patients who may qualify for RLTs could rise substantially across Europe.
“This study highlights the importance of long-term planning for treatment capacity to ensure that advances in cancer care can reach their full potential for patients,” says Dr. Malina Müller, Head of Health Economics at WifOR Institute.
Dr. Diego Hernandez, Senior Researcher for Health Economics at WifOR Institute and co-author of the study, adds: “Healthcare systems need time to expand infrastructure, obtain licenses, train specialized staff, and integrate new therapies into clinical practice. Understanding how the eligible patient population may evolve is a crucial step toward ensuring that healthcare systems are prepared to provide access to these innovations.”
“Until now, limited quantitative evidence has been available on the potential scale of demand for radioligand therapies in Europe. This study helps close that gap,” notes Dr. Platon Peristeris, Senior Researcher for Health Economics at WifOR Institute and co-author.
The study was conducted by an international team of researchers from the European Commission Joint Research Centre, WifOR Institute, Novartis, the London School of Economics and Political Science, and the University Hospital Tübingen.
Method
The analysis projects how the number of patients eligible for RLTs could evolve through 2035, taking into account currently approved indications, potential expansions to earlier stages of disease, and therapies in late-stage clinical development. Researchers combined epidemiological data with evidence on treatment eligibility criteria and modeled treatment uptake scenarios to assess the potential implications for healthcare capacity and patient access across Europe.
About WifOR Institute
WifOR is an independent economic research institute, founded in 2009 as a spin-off from the Technical University of Darmstadt, Germany. As experts in applied economic analysis, we specialize in health, impact, and labor markets. WifOR provides scientific insights and comparable data to measure value creation holistically – guiding decision-making in society, politics, and the economy. Through our studies and tools, we drive the shift toward viewing health as an investment, enable organizations to actively manage their impacts, and develop solutions to labor market challenges. WifOR operates on a global scale, having completed projects in more than 55 countries with over 80 colleagues in Berlin, Darmstadt, Leipzig, and Athens.
Diego Hernandez
Senior Researcher Health Economics
WifOR Institute
diego.hernandez@wifor.com
Holzwarth, U., Cirillo, R., Goulart, M., Hernandez, D., Peristeris, P., Poschenrieder, A., Papaioannou, P., Kanavos, P., la Fougère, C., Schaetz, L. Estimation of Future Patient Populations Eligible for Radioligand Therapies in the EU and the UK: A Modelling Study. The Lancet Regional Health – Europe; published online June 2026. DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2026.101733
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666776226001456. The Lancet Regional Health – Europe, Volume 67, August 2026, 101733
Scenario analysis of radioligand therapy uptake in healthcare systems, 2030–2035.
Quelle: Holzwarth U. et al.
Copyright: 2026 Holzwarth U. et al., CC BY 4.0
Dr. Diego Hernandez, Senior Researcher Health Economics
Copyright: WifOR Institute
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Scenario analysis of radioligand therapy uptake in healthcare systems, 2030–2035.
Quelle: Holzwarth U. et al.
Copyright: 2026 Holzwarth U. et al., CC BY 4.0
Dr. Diego Hernandez, Senior Researcher Health Economics
Copyright: WifOR Institute
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