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The Wuppertal Institute's expectations for the UN Climate Change Conference in Baku
The 29th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, COP29 for short, will take place from 11 to 22 November 2024 in Baku, Azerbaijan. COP29 will focus in particular on financial issues, but expectations for the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) must also be more clearly defined.
Wuppertal, 5 November 2024: The year 2024 was once again shaped by numerous devastating extreme weather events worldwide. This trend is expected to intensify further in the future: Authoritative assessments by the UN Environment Programme, the International Energy Agency and other relevant organisations agree that the door to limiting the global average temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius is rapidly closing. "More investment in climate protection is therefore urgently needed at all levels, but also in climate adaptation and damage prevention measures. The industrialised countries have a responsibility to take measures themselves and also to help the developing countries to implement measures," emphasises Prof. Dr. Manfred Fischedick, President and Scientific Managing Director of the Wuppertal Institute.
New Collective Quantified Goal for climate financing has top priority
This year's negotiations are based on the results of COP28: In Dubai, the global community concluded the first Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement with a call to transition away from fossil fuels by 2050, to halt and reverse deforestation and forest degradation by 2030, to triple the globally installed capacity of renewable energies by 2030 and to double the annual rate of energy efficiency improvements. "The countries of the Global South have made it very clear that they need considerable financial support in order to be able to make their contribution to achieving these goals and at the same time to better protect themselves against the consequences of climate change," explains Wolfgang Obergassel, Co-Head of the Global Climate Governance Research Unit at the Wuppertal Institute, and adds: "However, COP28 has postponed the financial issue to COP29. The definition of a New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) for climate finance is therefore a top priority at COP29."
The countries negotiating in Baku are currently divided on two key issues: How much money is needed? And from which sources should the necessary funds come? In the multi-year negotiation process on the NCQG, discussions have revolved around international public finance, private financial flows, the mobilisation of domestic resources and new, innovative sources of financing. In addition, the traditional industrialised countries called for the circle of contributors to be expanded to include wealthy countries of the Global South.
Financial target must recognise the importance of public funds for the financing needs of developing countries
Currently, the establishment of a multi-layered financial target is being discussed: It could integrate various sources of financing to cover the extensive climate financing needs of developing countries, which are estimated to be around one trillion US dollars per year through 2030. "A prerequisite for success is that this comprehensive goal recognises the importance of public funds and formulates a specific target for their provision. Only then will there be a chance of mobilising the necessary private funding," says Carsten Elsner, Researcher in the Global Climate Governance Research Unit at the Wuppertal Institute. "The NCQG should also set clear sub-targets for different areas of financing, such as emissions reduction, adaptation to climate change and coverage of climate-related loss and damage. This will ensure that funds are distributed equitably to the most important and often underfunded areas where private investment remains limited."
Resolving the contributor base issue requires transparency in the tracking of all financial flows in order to recognise the growing contributions coming from emerging economies, said Elsner. In addition, COP29 should clarify that the NCQG aims to capture all investment flows specifically directed to developing countries and emerging economies. Due to the high demand for funding, a clearly defined NCQG should also be combined with innovative mechanisms such as new international taxes and a reform of the multilateral development bank system. The needs of individual countries should also be taken into account when designing the financing mechanisms. While emerging economies benefit from loans and additional access to climate finance, many developing countries are highly indebted and have no capacities for financing loans. These countries should be prioritised in the provision of grants and debt relief measures. This would create the basis for a sustainable and diversified climate finance landscape that aligns with the equity principles of the Paris Agreement and the climate and biodiversity goals.
Next generation NDCs
In addition to resolving the financial issue, COP29 should define further guidelines for the required increase in ambition of the NDCs. In accordance with the Paris Agreement, the parties are required to tighten up their NDCs by February 2025. The latest Emissions Gap Report by the UN Environment Programme concluded that meeting the 1.5°C limit requires an immediate, G20-led massive global mobilisation to reduce all greenhouse gas emissions. Obergassel explains: "The conference should therefore call on all countries to not only set targets for 2035 in their NDCs, but to also update and significantly strengthen their targets and measures for the period until 2030. Otherwise, it will not be possible to achieve the 1.5°C limit and the results of the Global Stocktake." In addition, all NDCs should include both long-term zero-emission targets and timelines for a complete phase-out of fossil fuels by 2050 at the latest, as well as sector-specific targets and concrete policies and measures to actually achieve these targets. "It is imperative to set concrete goals in all areas now and to no longer be content with merely aggregated targets in order to make it clear that all sectors and the relevant actors are required to make substantial contributions," says Fischedick.
Wuppertal Institute provides impetus for the future with side events
The Wuppertal Institute is organising a series of side events at COP29 to present its research projects and findings and to promote exchange with delegates and practice partners. The thematic focus will be on international carbon markets.
Analysing the conference outcomes
Researchers at the Wuppertal Institute have been monitoring the ongoing negotiations since the beginning of the UN climate process. As in the previous years, the Wuppertal Institute will publish an initial evaluation of the results shortly after the conference has ended. Further information on COP29 is available via the links below.
Online Wuppertal Lunch on COP29 outcomes
Researchers from the Wuppertal Institute will present their assessment of the COP outcomes on 28 November 2024 from 12:30 pm at the Wuppertal Lunch "More Money, Less Problems? A Review of COP29", organised in cooperation with Table.Media, and discuss it with experts. The online event will be held in English. Participation is free of charge, registration is possible via the link below. Details on the programme will follow shortly.
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Press Release
Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie gGmbH
Responsible for content: Prof. Dr. Manfred Fischedick, Scientific Managing Director
Contact: Luisa Lucas, Deputy Head of Public Relations
Tel: +49 202 2492-292
E-mail: luisa.lucas@wupperinst.org
https://wupperinst.org/en/a/wi/a/s/ad/8748
https://wupperinst.org/en/topics/climate/cop The Wuppertal Institute's web page on the https://wupperinst.org/en/a/wi/a/s/ad/8743 World Climate Conference in Baku
http://The Wuppertal Institute's side events
https://wupperinst.org/en/a/wi/a/s/ad/8745 Wuppertal Lunch on 28 November 2024: More Money, Less Problems? A Review of COP29
https://unfccc.int/ UNFCCC
https://cop29.az/en/home COP29
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