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Nachrichten, Termine, Experten
Future Energy Options will be Cleaner, More Efficient:
IIASA-WEC scenarios show significant economic growth fueled by cleaner, abundant energy sources.
Future energy options for a more populated, economically developed world will reflect consumer demand for cleaner, more flexible, and more convenient energy end uses. However, the number of options available will depend on technological investments made over the next two decades, according to a five-year study recently published by IIASA and the World Energy Council (WEC) in a book titled Global Energy Perspectives. Results of the study were presented at the WEC Congress held ten days ago in Houston, Texas, USA.
The most important conclusion of the study is that action to plan the world's energy future must begin now. To that end, IIASA researchers, in the first phase of the study, constructed six scenarios of the future (up to the year 2100) to analyze what policies or investments make most sense today. The scenarios were grouped into three cases of economic and energy developments and cover a wide range of options: from a tremendous expansion of coal production to strict limits; from a phaseout of nuclear energy to a substantial increase; from carbon emissions in 2100 that are only one-third of today's levels to increases by more than a factor of three.
All of the scenarios allow significant economic growth without exhausting energy resources, but all require substantial, yet different, early investments. These early investments will determine which fuels, technologies, efficiency gains, conservation patterns, and pollution levels are most likely to characterize the 21st century.
For the second phase of the study, researchers extensively reviewed the study's assumptions, results, and implications for 11 world regions. Teams of regional experts and reviewers, totaling more than 100 individuals, provided more thorough regional assessments and alternative perspectives. These regional reviews confirmed the overall conclusions from the global analysis. These include:
- Resource availability will not be a major global constraint: With technological and economic development, estimates of the ultimately available energy resource base will continue to increase. The regional reviewers agreed with the global analysis that resource availability is no longer seen as geologically preordained. Rather, it is viewed as a function of the incentives and policies put in place for exploring and developing resources, constructing the necessary long-distance transport infrastructures, and, above all, attracting capital to energy investments.
- Quality of energy services and forms will increasingly shape future energy systems: Final energy structures are converging in all six scenarios: The trend, driven by consumer demand, is for more flexible, convenient and clean fuels, meaning a shift toward electricity and higher quality fuels such as natural gas, oil products, methanol, and, eventually, hydrogen.
- Energy end-use patterns will converge, while primary energy structures will diverge: While energy end-use patterns are very similar across the six scenarios, the sources of energy supply are very different. Yet all scenarios - from those with investments targeted on coal expansion to those with substantial taxes to discourage coal use and encourage renewable energy sources - can match the expected increases in energy demand for higher quality energy services. Thus our options appear today wide open.
- Technological change will be critical for future energy systems: Investment decisions in technological research, development and demonstration (RD&D) over the next few decades will determine which path we take. Widespread use of new technologies takes time, and technologies that get a headstart can often lock in their early advantage. Which options are available in 2020 and which are foreclosed depend on near-term investment decisions. But investment and progress in technology are essential in all cases. How near-term technological investments are targeted will determine how energy sources will keep pace with economic development. But if investments are too little, development itself will be limited.
More details can be found on the special IIASA-WEC web site. The book can be ordered on-line from the Cambridge University Press Web site at www.cup.cam.ac.uk or by contacting:
Cambridge University Press
The Edinburgh Building
Shaftesbury Road
Cambridge CB2 2RU
United Kingdom
Tel.: +44 (0)1223 312393
Fax: +44 (0)1223 315052
Email: information@cup.cam.ac.uk
or
Cambridge University Press North American Branch
40 West 20th Street
New York NY 10022-4211
USA
Tel.: +1 212 924 3900
Fax: +1 212 691 3239
Email: information@cup.org
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IIASA (Laxenburg, Austria) is a non-governmental research institution sponsored by a consortium of National Member Organizations in Asia, Europe and North America. The Institute's research focuses on sustainability and the human dimensions of global change. The studies are international and interdisciplinary, providing timely and relevant information and options for the scientific community, policy makers and the public.
For further information, please contact:
Office of Information, IIASA
Tel: (+43-2236) 807 ext. 261, Fax: (+43-2236) 73149, E-mail: inf@iiasa.ac.at
http://www.iiasa.ac.at/cgi-bin/ecs/book_dyn/bookcnt.py
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