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Is the Russian economy “surprisingly resilient” to sanctions and actions of the West? The short answer is no. On the contrary, the impact on Russian growth is already very clear while the economic downturn in the EU is small, says Maria Perrotta Berlin and Jesper Roine, researchers at the Stocholm Institute of Transition Economics at the Stockholm School of Economics.
The main effects from the sanctions are yet to be realized, and the coming sanctions will be even more consequential for the Russian economy. The biggest impacts are however those in the longer run, beyond the sanctions. Mr. Putin’s actions have led to a fundamental shift in the perception of Russia as a market for doing business. The West and especially EU countries are on a track of divesting their economic ties to Russia (in particular in, but not only, energy markets) and the country is simultaneously losing significant shares of its human capital. All these effects mean that the long-term economic outlook for Russia is not just a business cycle type recession but a lasting downward shift.
Contact
Maria Perrotta Berlin
Assistant Professor
Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE)
Email: maria.perrotta@hhs.se
Jesper Roine
Adjunct Professor and Deputy director
Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE)
Email: jesper.roine@hhs.se
The Bleak Economic Future of Russia
https://freepolicybriefs.org/2022/10/31/economic-future-russia/
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