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New European aid to Ukraine has not shown an uptick in recent months, despite the fact that US aid has come to a complete halt. In January and February 2024, European countries allocated a total of about EUR 6 billion in aid to Ukraine, almost all of it for the military. This is shown in the latest update of the Ukraine Support Tracker, which tracks aid commitments through February 29, 2024. The European aid in recent months is nowhere near enough to fill the gap left by the lack of US assistance, particularly in the area of ammunition and artillery shells. The new US aid package which passed congress last weekend is therefore crucial, but not yet included in the figures.
The Ukraine Support Tracker has shifted its focus to measuring "allocations". These are concrete aid packages that have already been delivered or were specified for delivery. This is made possible by better and more transparent data from the governments. Due to a lack of transparency, previously the focus had to be more on "commitments," meaning future promised aid, which were typically less specific.
"Europe has clearly not been able to fill the gap left by the dwindling US aid. This is especially true for ammunition, as the European defense sector has been very slow to build up production capacity. According to our preliminary assessment, the new US package contains approximately EUR 23 billion in military aid that will go to Ukraine. This is sorely needed support, but in the grand scheme of things it is not a game changer and will only provide temporary relief. Should the US pass no further support packages in late 2024 or 2025, Ukraine is very likely to face the same gap in support in 2025,” says Christoph Trebesch, Head of the Ukraine Support Tracker on the occasion of the latest update.
As of February 29, European donors and the EU have allocated a total of EUR 89.9 billion in aid for military, humanitarian, and financial support since Russia's invasion of Ukraine two years ago. The US has allocated EUR 67 billion. Since summer 2023, Europe's aid allocations have consistently exceeded those of the US, as the Congress has not approved any new Ukraine aid for over a year.
Europe on par with US in military aid
The momentum of European aid in January and February was primarily driven by military aid. With EUR 2.4 billion, Germany has announced its largest military aid package since almost a year. These include air defense systems, 155mm artillery, and corresponding ammunition.
With EUR 0.7 billion, Sweden has allocated its largest military package ever, containing a variety of both maritime and land military equipment. Large amounts of military aid were also allocated by the Netherlands (EUR 0.5 billion) and the UK (EUR 0.4 billion).
In total, Europe’s military support amounts to EUR 42 billion in terms of allocations. This is comparable to the US' allocations of EUR 43.1 billion. Overall, the two economic blocs account for over 95 percent of all military aid allocations to Ukraine amounting to around EUR 88 billion.
"Europe has caught up in recent months and is now on a par in terms of military aid. However, it has not been able to fill the large gap left by the US, especially regarding ammunitions. The new US aid package is therefore good news for Ukraine. For the remainder of 2024, Western support could again reach the levels of early and mid-2023, but major uncertainties remain on what happens after that," says Trebesch.
This long time without new US aid is particularly noticeable in the case of heavy ammunition, which was so far provided primarily by the US. The EU is primarily providing air defense systems, as well as howitzers and combat vehicles such as tanks.
About the Ukraine Support Tracker
The Ukraine Support Tracker tracks and quantifies military, financial, and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine since January 24, 2022 (currently through February 2024). Included are 41 countries, specifically the EU member states, the other members of the G7, Australia, South Korea, Turkey, Norway, New Zealand, Switzerland, Turkey, China, Taiwan, India, and Iceland. It includes aid from the governments of these countries to the Ukrainian government; aid from the EU Commission and the European Investment Bank is listed separately; private donations or those from international organizations such as the IMF are not included in the main database. Nor does it include aid to Ukraine's neighbors, such as Moldova, or to other countries, such as for the reception of refugees.
With regard to sources, the database combines official government sources with information from international media. Aid provided in kind, such as medical supplies, food, or military equipment, is quantified on the basis of market prices or information from previous crises involving government aid. In case of doubt, upper bounds of prices are used.
The Ukraine Support Tracker is constantly being expanded, corrected, and improved. Suggestions are very welcome and can be sent to ukrainetracker@ifw-kiel.de.
More information and detailed data can be found on this webpage: https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/.
For more information on the Ukraine Support Tracker methodology, read this working paper (https://www.ifw-kiel.de/de/publikationen/the-ukraine-support-tracker-which-count...).
Media Contact:
Mathias Rauck
Press Officer
T +49 431 8814-411
mathias.rauck@ifw-kiel.de
Kiel Institute for the World Economy
Kiellinie 66 | 24105 Kiel | Germany
T +49 431 8814-1
E info@ifw-kiel.de
www.ifw-kiel.de
Prof. Dr. Christoph Trebesch
Director International Finance and Macroeconomics
T +49 431 8814-577
christoph.trebesch@ifw-kiel.de
Dynamics of support: Europe vs. United States
Kiel Institute for the World Economy
Military allocations: Europe vs. United States
Kiel Institute for the World Economy
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Dynamics of support: Europe vs. United States
Kiel Institute for the World Economy
Military allocations: Europe vs. United States
Kiel Institute for the World Economy
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