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02/14/2025 08:12

Ukraine support after 3 years of war: Aid flows remain low but steady—Shift towards weapons procurement

Elisabeth Radke Kommunikation
Kiel Institut für Weltwirtschaft

    Over the past 3 years of war, donor countries have provided a low but continuous flow of support to Ukraine, with a value of about EUR 80 billion per year. European donors have been the main source of aid to Ukraine since 2022, especially when it comes to financial and humanitarian aid. At the same time, we observe a shift towards weapon procurement. In the initial phase of the war, military aid to Ukraine mostly came from existing arsenals of donor countries, but these have emptied over time. Today, the large majority military aid is newly produced weaponry from Western defense industries—with a small but growing role of multilateral weapon procurement initiatives.

    These are the findings of the latest update of the Ukraine Support Tracker, which tracks aid up to December 2024.

    February 24, 2025, marks the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Looking back, it becomes clear that Western donor countries have provided a continuous flow of aid to Ukraine, almost following a linear trend. In total, approximately EUR 267 billion in aid has been allocated to Ukraine over the past three years, amounting to more than EUR 80 billion per year. Of the total around EUR 130 billion (49 percent) were allocated in military assistance, EUR 118 billion (44 percent) in financial support, and EUR 19 billion (7 percent) in humanitarian aid.

    The sum of aid is comparatively low, however, when measured as a share of donor GDP. Germany, the UK, and the US, for example, have mobilized less than 0.2 percent of their GDP per year to support Ukraine, while other rich donor countries like France, Italy, or Spain only allocated about 0.1 percent of their annual GDP. Even small domestic policy priorities are many times more expensive than what is being done for Ukraine. For example, Germany’s tax subsidies for diesel fuel (‘diesel privilege’) cost taxpayers three times more per year than Germany’s military aid for Ukraine. “When looking at the government budgets in most European donor countries, Ukraine aid over the last 3 years looks more like a minor political ‘pet project’ rather than a major fiscal effort,” says Christoph Trebesch, head of the Ukraine Support Tracker (https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/) at the Kiel Institute.

    Europe as a whole has clearly overtaken the US in terms of Ukraine aid. In total, Europe has allocated EUR 70 billion in financial and humanitarian aid as well as EUR 62 billion in military aid. This compares to EUR 64 billion in military aid from the US as well as EUR 50 billion in financial and humanitarian allocations.

    The declining role of US aid started in mid-2023 also because aid flow significantly decreased for nine months when the US Congress blocked any new aid bill. In recent months US aid has picked up again, but “with the return of President Trump to office, US military aid is likely to stall again. As a result, European governments will be asked to step up their efforts and fill the large gap left by the US,” says Christoph Trebesch.

    The newly collected data also show that the Russia-Ukraine war is increasingly dictated by weapons production. At the beginning of the war, military aid largely came from the existing arsenals of donor countries, but the prolonged Russian aggression now requires an increasing share to be sourced directly from industry.

    In the first months of the war, more than 90 percent of military aid was mobilized from national arsenals. In 2023 and 2024, however, most of the military aid—more than 60 percent—was ordered from industry and newly produced. This shift is particularly evident in Germany, where nearly three-quarters of military equipment for Ukraine is ordered directly from industry. The UK relies more on existing stockpiles, with just 22 percent of its military aid coming from new orders. The US orders 48 percent of its military aid from industry.

    Three years into the war, European donors have slowly improved their coordination and introduced new mechanisms for joint industrial weapons procurement for Ukraine. The largest multilateral procurement initiative is the International Fund for Ukraine (IFU), a UK-led funding mechanism that pools contributions from multiple countries to purchase military equipment for Ukraine, with total allocations amounting to EUR 1.6 billion. Other recent efforts include the Czech Ammunition Initiative and NATO Comprehensive Assistance Package for Ukraine.

    “Russia's war against Ukraine has become a war of procurement and weapons production,” says Christoph Trebesch. “It is thus crucial to build up industrial capacity for defense production—especially in Europe. The best way to do so is by pan-European cooperation.”

    For more in-depth analysis on these trends and further insights into the evolution of Ukraine support over the past three years, please visit our Three-Year Anniversary Report: Ukraine Support After Three Years of War: Aid remains low but steady and there is a shift toward weapons procurement (https://www.ifw-kiel.de/fileadmin/Dateiverwaltung/Subject_Dossiers_Topics/Ukrain...).

    About the Ukraine Support Tracker

    The Ukraine Support Tracker (https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/) lists and quantifies military, financial, and humanitarian aid pledged to Ukraine since January 24, 2022 (currently through December 2024). It covers 40 countries, specifically the EU member states, other members of the G7, as well as Australia, South Korea, Turkey, Norway, New Zealand, Switzerland, China, Taiwan, and India. Also, EU institutions are included as a separate donor. The tracker lists government-to-government commitments; private donations or those from international organizations such as the IMF are not included in the main database. Flows going into other countries like, for example, Moldova, are not included.

    With regard to sources, the database combines official government sources with information from international media. Aid provided in kind, such as medical supplies, food, or military equipment, is quantified on the basis of market prices or information from previous crises involving government aid. In case of doubt, upper bounds of prices are used.

    The Ukraine Support Tracker is constantly being expanded, corrected, and improved. Suggestions are very welcome and can be sent to ukrainetracker@ifw-kiel.de.

    More information and detailed data can be found on this webpage: Ukraine Support Tracker (https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/).

    For more information on the Ukraine Support Tracker methodology, read this working paper (https://www.ifw-kiel.de/de/publikationen/the-ukraine-support-tracker-which-count...).

    Media Contact:
    Elisabeth Radke
    Head of Outreach
    T +49 431 8814-598
    elisabeth.radke@ifw-kiel.de

    Kiel Institute for the World Economy
    Kiellinie 66 | 24105 Kiel | Germany
    Chausseestraße 111 | 10115 Berlin | Germany
    T +49 431 8814-1
    E info@ifw-kiel.de
    www.ifw-kiel.de


    Contact for scientific information:

    Prof. Dr. Christoph Trebesch
    Vice President and Director
    International Finance
    T +49 431 8814-577
    christoph.trebesch@ifw-kiel.de


    Images

    Europe has long overtaken the US in total aid
    Europe has long overtaken the US in total aid

    Kiel Institute for the World Economy

    Two-thirds of military aid now comes from industry
    Two-thirds of military aid now comes from industry

    Kiel Institute for the World Economy


    Criteria of this press release:
    Business and commerce, Journalists, Scientists and scholars
    Economics / business administration, Politics, Social studies
    transregional, national
    Transfer of Science or Research
    English


     

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