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A University of Passau-led project with African scientists shows the extent to which plant communities in the African mountains will be affected by global climate change. The results of the study were published today in the renowned journal Global Change Biology.
Temperature increases in mountain areas are known to stimulate an upslope shift of plant species that are adapted to colder temperatures. However, the research team has now found that under an intensified climate change scenario, this shift in the African mountains occurs three times faster than the current global average. The findings suggest that the accelerated rates of change are limiting the ability of some species to track their suitable habitat based solely on their natural dispersal ability. According to the authors, further efforts are needed to better connect habitats, promote restoration and assist migration in a targeted manner. This is particularly true in many African mountains characterised by endemic species that already occur at the highest elevations and have no further elevation available for upward migration.
The international research team led by Professor Christine Schmitt, holder of the Chair of Physical Geography with a focus on human-environment research at the University of Passau, and Dr João de Deus Vidal Jr, now at the University of Leipzig, developed statistical models, so-called species distribution models, taking into account the environmental preferences of plant species, their dispersal capacity, the probable changes in land use and the probable changes in climate variables by the end of the century. Overall, the models were run for 607 vascular plant species and three emissions scenarios (SSPs) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The projections indicate that even if global warming is kept under 2°C until 2100, almost half of the plant species will experience a decline in suitable habitats. Under high-emission scenarios, around three quarters of plant species will be affected; species that occur at higher altitudes will be affected even more. Trees and shrubs can generally withstand the new conditions better than herbs and ferns, but for some tree species it is predicted that they will lose more than 90 per cent of their suitable habitat under the scenarios with high emissions and the risk of extinction will increase accordingly.
The situation is particularly serious for plant species that occur at higher altitudes or in geographically isolated mountain ranges, as they have hardly any alternative areas upwards. The study shows that, across all emission scenarios, the loss of species richness is highest in the mountains of Madagascar and in the East African highlands; the South African mountain ranges are also severely affected.
The persistence of the diverse mountain flora in Africa depends on shifts in elevation and expansions in plant distribution areas, which can only occur if habitats are connected and biotic interactions such as pollination and dispersal are ensured; the pace of predicted shifts in distribution areas is determined by the intensity of climate change and possible land use changes.
According to Professor Christine Schmitt, University of Passau: “This is the first comprehensive synthesis study on climate change effects on plant diversity in Africa’s mountain ranges. It clearly demonstrates the vulnerability of these unique ecosystems but also shows that the worst implications for plant diversity in the African mountains can still be averted if global warming is kept at bay. Next to reducing global CO2 emissions, it is crucial to tackle land use change, which may also be linked to global trade and development. Cultivation outside the natural range (ex-situ conservation) and seed banks would be practicable measures of last resort to protect the most endangered species."
Dr João de Deus Vidal Jr., formerly University of Passau says: “This study is the outcome of an international collaboration involving 18 researchers, mostly based at African institutions. By working together, we were able to provide a continental overview of the impacts of climate change on the African mountains that also incorporates the perceptions of regional experts. A big challenge is to enable and improve the monitoring of the effects of climate change across political borders. Many African mountain regions extend across multiple countries; by collaborating with multiple local biodiversity collections such as herbaria, we were getting closer to assembling the big picture.”
About the study
The study compiles 419,055 occurrence records of African plant species from international databases as well as published and unpublished data sources. These include 7,378 species that are endemic to the African mountains, 607 of which have sufficient botanical data. The study combines climate, soil, topography and land use data from various global datasets and includes dispersal types such as wind dispersal and ballistic dispersal. This allowed the models to be made more realistic, as their dispersal capacity can limit the ability of a plant species to reach suitable habitats.
Text: Christine B. Schmitt, João de Deus Vidal Jr. und Ralph Clark
Professor Christine Schmitt
Chair of Physical Geography with a focus on human-environment research
University of Passau
mail: Christine.Schmitt@uni-passau.de
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70492
https://www.sobi.uni-passau.de/en/geography-section/team/prof-dr-christine-schmi... Website of Professor Christine Schmitt
The Bale Mountains Plateau lies at around 4,000 m above sea level and is dominated by alpine vegetat ...
Source: Christine B. Schmitt
Copyright: Christine B. Schmitt
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The Bale Mountains Plateau lies at around 4,000 m above sea level and is dominated by alpine vegetat ...
Source: Christine B. Schmitt
Copyright: Christine B. Schmitt
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