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Nachrichten, Termine, Experten
Many countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA region) are affected by extreme weather events. Heavy rainfall has repeatedly led to devastating floods in Jordan, for example. Climate change exacerbates the vulnerability of arid regions, where heat, drought and flash floods converge. A recent policy brief by the Institute for Social-Ecological Research (ISOE) provides recommendations for action for countries with limited data availability and institutional capacities. The publication shows how the risk of flood damage can be reduced and the chances of sustainable rainwater utilisation increased.
Consider Jordan, for example: this country in the MENA region – Middle East and North Africa – suffers greatly from water shortages. Around 80 % of the country is desert, and groundwater reserves are insufficient to supply the population and agriculture. Climate change is leading to even more frequent extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall and flooding. More than 300 flash floods with many fatalities have been recorded in the entire MENA region since 1950.
Which climate adaptation strategies could help to counteract the MENA region’s vulnerability? How can the devastating consequences and damage caused by flash floods be minimised while optimising the use of heavy rainfall? The German-Jordanian research team, led by ISOE spent three years investigating this question in the project “Capture and retain heavy rainfalls in Jordan”, or “CapTain Rain” for short, working closely with Jordanian research institutions, authorities and ministries.
Flash flood management: identifying risks at an early stage
“In order to develop early warning systems and climate change adaptation strategies suitable for the MENA region, we first need to better understand the risks: what contributes to heavy rainfall and flooding, and what measures can be taken to reduce damage,” explains project manager Katja Brinkmann. “Our research in Jordan shows that the interlinkage of better data management, planning and participation is crucial for identifying risks early on and reducing them effectively.”
The researchers recommend integrating existing hydrological, meteorological and socio-economic data more closely, and filling the resulting gaps using open data sources, remote sensing and participatory surveys. Only in this way can reliable risk maps and early warning systems be developed, even in countries with limited databases.
Integrated concept for risk assessment and planning of measures
Brinkmann emphasises: “Technical measures alone are not enough for climate-resilient flash flood management. We need integrated concepts that bring together ecological, social and spatial aspects as well as the knowledge of local actors, right from the start of the planning process.”
An integrative risk assessment model was therefore developed for Jordan: it combines technical data, such as water levels and flow velocities, with information on the vulnerability of the population and natural conditions in order to identify risk areas. Even in regions with limited data, a reliable assessment of risk areas is possible using freely available sources such as OpenStreetMap, satellite data and local surveys, as the example of Jordan shows.
Sustainable solutions through early involvement of all stakeholders
The early involvement of municipal administrations, planning authorities and local stakeholders allows measures to be implemented in a more targeted manner and secured in the long term. “Sustainable solutions can only be developed by bringing together data, expertise and local experience,” emphasises Brinkmann. Another key lies in nature-based solutions, which have so far been given too little consideration in planning. So-called blue-green infrastructure could significantly reduce the amount of water during heavy rainfall events, as simulation results for the Amman project area show.
The findings from Jordan can be applied to many countries in the MENA region. “Our research results show that integrated data management, participation and nature-based approaches together are the key to climate-resilient flash flood management, even where resources are limited,” summarises Katja Brinkmann.
ISOE Policy Brief: Risk prevention measures in the MENA region
In the ISOE Policy Brief “Flash flood management in arid and data-scarce countries: Lessons learnt from Jordan”, the team of authors led by project manager Katja Brinkmann summarises challenges and recommendations for arid regions in the Middle East and North Africa.
- The authors describe the lack of available data on infrastructure, social aspects and environmental factors such as precipitation and soil conditions as one of the greatest challenges in the MENA region. However, improving the availability and quality of data is essential for risk analysis, in order to make an accurate assessment of vulnerability and plan effective adaptation measures.
- The authors emphasise the need to overcome structural challenges: in order to coordinate efficient risk management against flash floods, a comprehensive strategy is required to strengthen cooperation between government agencies and local communities. In this regard, the integration of the affected population groups into planning and decision-making is crucial.
- Participatory approaches to planning and implementation processes should be specifically promoted. Involving all relevant stakeholders enables a shared understanding of the objectives and effects of risk management to be created.
- Nature-based solutions should be promoted. In view of the rapid urbanisation in the MENA region, it is important to secure remaining areas that contribute to improving climate change resilience by promoting rainwater retention and improving soil infiltration.
The ISOE Policy Brief is available for free download and, with its research-based recommendations for action, offers decision-makers in politics and administration in the context of development cooperation helpful information on water resources in arid regions and climate adaptation strategies in the event of flash floods.
Dr. habil. Katja Brinkmann
Institute for Social-Ecological Research (ISOE)
Head of the Social-Ecological Systems Hub
+49 69 7076919-42
katja.brinkmann@isoe.de
Brinkmann, Katja, Markus Rauchecker, Martina Winker, Dörte Ziegler (2025): Flash flood management in arid and data-scarce countries: Lessons learnt from Jordan. ISOE Policy Brief, 11. Frankfurt am Main. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.16950157
https://www.isoe.de/uploads/downloads/Publikationen/Reihen/ISOE-Policy-Brief/iso...
https://www.isoe.de/en/news/risikovorsorge-bei-sturzfluten-anpassung-an-den-klim...
https://www.isoe.de/en/project/captain-rain-wassersammlung-und-ableitung-bei-sta...
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