idw – Informationsdienst Wissenschaft
Nachrichten, Termine, Experten
Nachrichten, Termine, Experten
In the next five years, around 186,000 companies will need new owners because the current owners are retiring, getting sick, or dying, according to estimates from IfM Bonn. Despite the increasing age of entrepreneurs, this is around 800 companies fewer per year than in the IfM Bonn's previous estimate for 2022 to 2026. The reason for the stagnation is the poorer earnings situation that many companies have faced in recent years.
According to estimates by the IfM Bonn, a succession will be due in around 186,000 companies over the next five years, as their owners are expected to step down from management because of age, illness or death. Despite the advancing age of business owners, this figure represents around 800 fewer companies per year than in the previous IfM Bonn estimate for 2022 to 2026. "The reason for the stagnation in business transfers, despite a growing number of owners willing to hand over their companies, lies in the weaker earnings situation many businesses have faced in recent years. This has made takeovers less attractive from the perspective of potential successors," explains Dr Markus Rieger-Fels. This development particularly affects companies in business-related services with annual turnovers below 500,000 Euro.
Company Size as a Key Factor in Business Succession
The IfM researchers expect that around 30% of all business successions will take place in the manufacturing sector and another 30% in business-related services. By contrast, only about one in six companies transferred during the estimation period will come from the retail and wholesale trade sector.
The highest number of successions per 1,000 companies is expected in Lower Saxony (61), Schleswig-Holstein (55) and Bremen (55). Lower Saxony and Bremen, benefit from a larger number of companies in the medium turnover size classes, which tend to be transferred more frequently.
Compared with the previous estimation period (2022–2026), significantly more long-standing owners in Saxony-Anhalt (53) and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (54) are expected to transfer their businesses. By contrast, the number of successions in Berlin remains low (44). The reason for this is that the federal capital has relatively few companies in the manufacturing sector and a disproportionately high number of service-sector firms. Moreover, the latter are predominantly in the smallest turnover size classes, where a business transfer is rarely financially attractive.
Due to a lack of official data, researchers at the IfM Bonn have been using a specially developed method since the mid-1990s to estimate the number of upcoming business transfers in Germany at regular intervals. In contrast to other institutions, the IfM Bonn use a market-based approach: hey consider not only the owners' desire to transfer their family business, but also the question of which family businesses are economically viable for potential successors. This approach provides a realistic picture of the business succession landscape in Germany and helps inform policymakers and practitioners about future trends and challenges.
https://www.ifm-bonn.org/fileadmin/data/redaktion/publikationen/daten_und_fakten...
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