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Climate change has a wide range of effects on wildlife. It affects seasonal migration, reproduction times, body size and mass, and disrupts ecological processes, thereby posing challenges for the populations of some species. An international team of scientists has now analysed more than 200 scientific studies on 73 animal species in a meta-study to determine exactly how climate change is related to phenology, morphology and population trends. The team explains in the journal Nature Communications that phenological traits – seasonal developmental phenomena – are very sensitive to temperature changes and that this represents a mechanism for many species to cope with climate change.
Different kinds of adaptations can help animals cope with climate change and maintain stable populations: these can confer changes in behaviour, physiology or body size. An international team of scientists from more than 60 research institutions led by the Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research (Leibniz-IZW), James Cook University and University College Cork analysed 213 scientific studies for links between climate change and phenology (e.g. start of breeding or return to summer quarters), morphology (e.g. body size, weight or shape) and population development of a total of 73 vertebrate species. The team looked not only for evidence of the influence of climate change on specific fitness parameters of animals – such as survival rate or reproductive success – but also on the changes in population numbers of those species. Most studies examined birds (65 percent), followed by reptiles (23 percent) and mammals (10 percent). An important criterion for the selection of studies was the availability of long-term data sets on phenological or morphological variables and population size, to be able to confidently reveal the patterns. Typically, the studies used data from 15 to 25 year periods.
Climate change influences seasonal developmental processes, which then affect population numbers
From the relevant phenology studies (97 studies), the scientists were able to deduce clear evidence that seasonally recurring developmental processes are significantly influenced by changes in temperature. In warmer years, they observed a shift in breeding times and other phenological characteristics mostly towards earlier dates, but in some cases they also observed a delay in the processes. “We were able to show that shifts in seasonal developmental events allow populations to remain stable or even increase in their numbers”, says Dr Viktoriia Radchuk from the Leibniz-IZW, lead author of the meta-study published in Nature Communications. “The majority of studies also showed that temperature-induced shifts in phenology are adaptive responses. This means that the adaptations are effective coping mechanisms for dealing with climate change, for example, by shifting the actual timing of egg laying in a bird species to coincide with the shift in the optimal timing for egg laying.”
However, the meta-study also pointed towards maladaptation to climate change in a notable amount of cases. “The effect of warming on phenology is very clear, but the implications for wildlife are heterogeneous”, says Dr Tom Reed from University College Cork, a shared senior author of the study. “We are probably dealing primarily with so-called trait plasticity and, in the periods studied, not yet with evolutionary processes. Phenological traits can obviously be adapted flexibly enough by animals.” On average, species living at higher geographical latitudes – i.e. closer to the poles – were shown to be more sensitive to temperature. However, apart from geographical latitude, no other species characteristics could explain variation in climate sensitivity of phenotypic traits and population growth rates. It is likely that this variation can be better explained by local habitat conditions than by species-level characteristics such as generation time and migration mode.
Climate change has inconsistent effects on the body measurements of animals
The meta-study could not deduce any clear effects of climate change on the morphology of the studied animals. The scientists assume that changes in physical build or size occur much more slowly than phenological changes. “Despite the large size of our data set and often very long duration of the studies included, our meta-study is merely a spotlight on the highly complex world of the effects of climate change on biodiversity”, concludes Dr Martijn van de Pol from James Cook University, a shared senior author of this study. “The study of physiological responses to climate change would be most informative, but such field studies are still very rare. Species from the Global South, non-bird species, and phenological processes not associated with spring are also rare in what is currently the largest meta-dataset of its kind.” Nonetheless, this dataset provides much-needed information that will allow parameterising mechanistic population dynamics models for over 70 species and predict effects of climate change into the future – a task that is now as important as ever.
This research was initiated at sDiv workshops, supported by Synthesis Centre at the German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig.
Dr Viktoriia Radchuk
Scientist in the Department of Ecological Dynamics
Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research (Leibniz-IZW)
phone: +49 (0)30 5168454
cell: +49(0)1575 6038711
email: radchuk@izw-berlin.de
Dr Martijn van de Pol
Associate Professor in Ecological modelling
James Cook University
phone: +61 (0)7 478 15580
email: martijn.vandepol@jcu.edu.au
Dr Tom Reed
Senior Lecturer in Zoology
University College Cork, School of Biological Earth and Environmental Sciences
phone: +353 (0)83 155 3170
email: treed@ucc.ie
Radchuk V, Jones CV, McLean N. et al. (2026): Changes in phenology mediate vertebrate population responses to temperature globally. Nature Communications (2026). DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-68172-8
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