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Over several years, SARS-CoV-2 produced new variants that spread rapidly worldwide and
triggered waves of COVID-19 infections. This pattern may now be undergoing a lasting
change.
The WHO declared the global health emergency associated with the COVID-19 pandemic to be over in 2023, as most individuals had developed immune protection against the virus through vaccination and/or infection. However, even after 2023, the virus has continued to generate new variants that evade antibody responses and spread globally. This pattern may now be changing in a sustained way. Infection researchers at the German Primate Center – Leibniz Institute for Primate Research in Göttingen have found that the most recently dominant variants are not being replaced by a new variant that spreads rapidly worldwide. Instead, an unusual variant, BA.3.2, is spreading relatively slowly. This variant is not successful in all countries, but it frequently infects children. These observations suggest that a complex immunity may have developed through vaccination and infections, making it difficult for new variants to break through.
A new pattern: From rapid replacement to parallel spread
Since 2020, new SARS-CoV-2 variants have emerged in rapid succession, each replacing the previously dominant strains. However, this dynamic may now be changing. The most recently dominant variants, NB.1.8.1 and XFG, have not been replaced, as expected, by a new globally dominant variant. Instead, the BA.3.2 variant - also referred to as "Cicada" - is spreading slowly but steadily.
BA.3.2, first detected in South Africa in November 2024, is characterized by unusual properties: unlike earlier variants, it spreads in parallel with existing variants. In some European countries and certain Australian states, it has become dominant, while in other regions it has been less successful.
What does this mean for the pandemic?
The researchers’ observations point to a significant shift: for the first time, a successful variant may not be replaced by a new globally dominant variant; instead, multiple variants may circulate simultaneously. “This could indicate that the immune protection generated by vaccinations and previous infections is difficult for new variants to overcome,” explains Stefan Pöhlmann, lead author of the study. “The parallel spread of multiple variants could suggest that the infection dynamics are transitioning into an endemic phase - that is, a persistent presence of the virus in the population, in which globally synchronized waves of infection are no longer expected, but rather regional and temporally staggered outbreaks.”
An unexpected observation: children more frequently infected
A comparison of the relative infection frequency across different age groups for currently circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants showed that BA.3.2 infects young children significantly more often than other variants. In Scotland and England, where the variant has spread widely, an increase in COVID-19 cases among children has been observed - while case numbers among older individuals remained stable. The reasons for this unusual preference are not yet known.
The significance of the study
The findings of Lu Zhang, Markus Hoffmann, and Stefan Pöhlmann at the German Primate Center shed new light on the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic. They suggest that the global immunity developed through vaccination and prior infections can now only be partially overcome by new variants.
These results and the researchers’ assessment of their significance were published in the international journal The Lancet Infectious Diseases as a commentary article.
Original publication:
Lu Zhang, Markus Hoffmann, Stefan Pöhlmann. Does BA.3.2 epidemiology imply a change in SARS-CoV-2 evolution? The Lancet Infectious Diseases, published online April 17, 2026
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(26)00192-1/fullt...
Commentary articles are written by experts in the respective field and reflect their own views, which do not necessarily correspond to those of The Lancet or any of the journals in the Lancet group.
SARS-CoV-2 is constantly producing new variants that spread rapidly around the world and trigger waves of COVID-19. This pattern may now be changing permanently.
Prof. Dr. Stefan Pöhlmann
Phone: +49 551 3851-150
Email: spoehlmann@dpz.eu
Lu Zhang, Markus Hoffmann, Stefan Pöhlmann. Does BA.3.2 epidemiology imply a change in
SARS-CoV-2 evolution? The Lancet Infectious Diseases, published online April 17, 2026
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(26)00192-1/fullt...
https://medien.dpz.eu/pinaccess/showpin.do?pinCode=F6Z5t6q2P6O0 Printable images
Dr. Markus Hoffmann (left) and Prof. Dr. Stefan Pöhlmann are infection researchers and coronavirus e ...
Source: Karin Tilch
Copyright: Deutsches Primatenzentrum
Lu Zhang, infection biologist at the German Primate Center
Source: Katharina Diederich
Copyright: Deutsches Primatenzentrum
Diagram of the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 variants. Illustration: Markus Hoffmann (using Google Gemini)
Criteria of this press release:
Journalists
Biology
transregional, national
Research results
English
Dr. Markus Hoffmann (left) and Prof. Dr. Stefan Pöhlmann are infection researchers and coronavirus e ...
Source: Karin Tilch
Copyright: Deutsches Primatenzentrum
Lu Zhang, infection biologist at the German Primate Center
Source: Katharina Diederich
Copyright: Deutsches Primatenzentrum
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