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An analysis by the Brussels-based research institute Bruegel and the Kiel Institute for the World Economy estimates the costs and requirements if Europe has to defend itself against Russia without the support of the USA. According to the estimations, considerable defense investments of around EUR 250 billion per year would be necessary to effectively counter Russian military force.
The authors assume that Europe would have to deploy around 50 additional brigades with a total of 300,000 soldiers. For this, at least 1,400 new main battle tanks and 2,000 infantry fighting vehicles would be required, which would exceed the current stocks of the entire German, French, Italian, and British land forces. In addition, Europe would have to produce around 2,000 long-range drones every year.
Read Kiel Policy Brief: "Defending Europe without the US: first estimates of what is needed” (https://www.ifw-kiel.de/publications/defending-europe-without-the-us-first-estim...)
"Even if the scale is initially considerable: In economic terms, this is manageable in relation to the EU's economic strength, with the additional costs only amounting to around 1.5 percent of the EU's gross domestic product. That is far less than had to be mobilized to overcome the crisis during the Covid pandemic, for example," says Professor Guntram Wolff, co-author of the analysis and Senior-Fellow at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
Challenge: military coordination within the EU
The authors emphasize that Russia has massively increased its military capacities despite high losses in the Ukraine war. At the end of 2024, Russia had around 700,000 soldiers in Ukraine—significantly more than during the invasion in 2022. In addition, around 1,550 new tanks and 5,700 armored vehicles were produced in 2024, an increase of 220 percent and 150 percent respectively compared to 2022. Russia has also made considerable progress with drones and long-range ammunition.
"Russia could have the military strength to attack the EU states in the next three to ten years. We must classify this as a real danger. This is another reason why it is in Europe's best interest to prevent a Russian victory in Ukraine, which could further fuel Russia's aggression," says Wolff.
However, according to the analysis, one of the biggest challenges remains military coordination within Europe. While the US armed forces operate as a unified corps, the European armies are spread across 28 national armed forces. Wolff: "If each country tries to defend itself alone, it will cost more. Self-insurance is more expensive than collective security. Closer coordination and joint procurement are therefore essential."
Up to EUR 60 billion additional military spending for Germany
The authors propose an increase in European defense spending from the current 2 percent to up to 3.5 to 4 percent of GDP per year. This would mean that the EU and its member states would have to jointly raise an additional EUR 250 billion annually.
Half of this could be financed by common European debt and used for joint procurement, which offers cost advantages over national procurement. The other half could be financed through national defense spending by member states. For Germany, Europe's largest economy, this would mean an increase in national defense spending from EUR 80 to up to EUR 140 billion, equivalent to 3.5 percent of GDP.
However, the authors also see economic benefits: "A debt-financed increase in defense spending could also act as an economic stimulus if it is spent within the EU, especially in times of declining external demand due to US tariffs and trade conflicts," says Wolff.
Read Kiel Policy Brief: "Defending Europe without the US: first estimates of what is needed” (https://www.ifw-kiel.de/publications/defending-europe-without-the-us-first-estim...)
Media Contact:
Mathias Rauck
Chief Communications Officer
T +49 431 8814-411
mathias.rauck@ifw-kiel.de
Kiel Institute for the World Economy
Kiellinie 66 | 24105 Kiel | Germany
Chausseestraße 111 | 10115 Berlin | Germany
T +49 431 8814-1
E info@ifw-kiel.de
www.ifw-kiel.de
Prof. Dr. Guntram Wolff
Kiel Institute Fellow
guntram.wolff@bruegel.org
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