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New research reveals how seasonal diseases impact our willingness to follow health measures
• People are less likely to follow protective measures when infection levels drop, leading to seasonal surges in disease.
• A new model shows how behavior and disease spread influence each other throughout the year, creating repeating patterns of outbreaks.
• Understanding these dynamics can help design better public health strategies to reduce the impact of seasonal diseases like flu and COVID-19.
How Seasonal Changes Affect Compliance
Many respiratory diseases, such as the flu and COVID-19, follow a seasonal pattern, with infections rising in colder months and declining in warmer ones. But what about human behavior? A team of researchers from the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Biology, together with collaborators from Brazil and the USA, have studied how people’s willingness to follow health measures—like wearing masks or reducing personal contacts—also changes with the seasons.
Using a mathematical model that combines disease spread and human decision-making, the researchers found that when infection levels are high, more people are willing to take protective measures. However, as cases decline, many stop taking precautions—even though the risk hasn’t completely disappeared. This decision may lead to social dilemmas, which emerge when individual self-interest (such as stop using protective measures, like wearing masks) conflicts with collective well-being (for example, aim to eradicate/mitigate the disease). This behavior can set the stage for new waves of infection when the disease spreads more easily again in winter.
Their findings suggest that people’s adherence to health measures is not static, but follows a seasonal cycle, much like the diseases themselves. Their findings highlight the complex interplay between personal choices and public health outcomes. This interplay creates a recurring social dilemma: while collective action (such as widespread mask use) could help prevent major outbreaks, individual motivations often lead to a drop in cooperation as soon as the immediate danger appears to fade.
By understanding these patterns, public health policies and interventions could be better tailored to encourage sustained cooperation, helping to reduce the burden of seasonal illnesses.
Amanda de Azevedo-Lopes
PostDoc
Department of Theoretical Biology
Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Biology
Email: azevedo@evolbio.mpg.de
Flores, L.S., Azevedo-Lopes, A.d., Saad-Roy, C.M. et al. Seasonal social dilemmas. npj Complex 2, 17 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s44260-025-00035-1
Seasonal transmission and human behaviour: When case numbers are low (e.g. in summer), many ease pre ...
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