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Nachrichten, Termine, Experten
Nachrichten, Termine, Experten
idw - Informationsdienst
Wissenschaft
The 30th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP30) in Brazil fell far short of expectations and failed to provide adequate responses to the increased requirements: Despite mounting impacts of climate change worldwide, no consensus was reached in key areas, mainly because major oil, gas and coal-producing countries stalled tangible progress. Researchers at the Wuppertal Institute now present their analysis of the conference results – and emphasise that what is needed now is a strong coalition of the willing to push ahead with binding measures for the global phase-out of fossil fuels, both within and beyond the UN climate negotiations.
Wuppertal, 28 November 2025: Countries that benefit greatly from the use of fossil fuels, such as the OPEC states and Russia, once again succeeded in largely blocking tangible progress at this year's COP negotiations. “It is now clear to everyone that the 1.5-degree limit cannot be met with the measures taken or adopted to date by the international community. Instead of jointly focusing on strategies to reverse the trend, the necessary gradual phase-out of fossil fuels is not even mentioned in the conference decisions,” criticises Prof. Dr.-Ing. Manfred Fischedick, President and Scientific Managing Director of the Wuppertal Institute.
Since the 2021 COP in Glasgow, the causes of climate change, especially the use of fossil fuels, have rightly been at the centre of climate conferences. However, resistance from fossil-fuel-dependent countries – which amounts to a veto given the consensus principle of the COPs – prevented robust agreements from being reached. Unlike previous conferences, at COP30 it was not possible to isolate these countries. This was mainly due to the US withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement and the signal this sent, but also because of the weak and far too late formulation of the EU’s position for Belém. Another key reason for the weak outcome: Many countries of the Global South require extensive financial support for the energy transition, climate adaptation and damage mitigation. However, wealthy countries have so far failed to provide sufficient (financial) support and, as was the case at the previous COP in Baku, it therefore once again proved impossible to form a broad alliance to isolate the countries holding back progress.
With the COP30 Action Agenda, which unites many initiatives beyond the official negotiation process, the conference leadership attempted to set a positive tone despite all the difficulties – but this was not enough to conceal the shortcomings of the conference as a whole.
Wolfgang Obergassel, Co-Head of the Global Climate Governance Research Unit at the Wuppertal Institute, elaborates: “For decades, climate change has been viewed as a classic prisoner’s dilemma: although all countries share an interest in solving the problem, there are also strong incentives to keep one's own contribution to the solution as low as possible. During the history of the negotiations, the participants wrestled for a long time with the issue of burden sharing, centred on abstract emission targets that all countries could agree on.” However, it is now becoming increasingly clear that climate change is primarily a complex problem of distribution and transformation: Forceful climate protection would significantly devalue the remaining fossil resources and the facilities based on them. Accordingly, the countries and companies that own these fossil fuel reserves and facilities are seeking to drastically slow down effective climate protection at all political levels, not only to keep their own contributions to a minimum.
A roadmap with concrete measures is needed
To appease the more ambitious countries, Brazil has announced it will develop roadmaps for phasing out fossil fuels and ending deforestation next year, outside the formal UNFCCC process. Colombia has announced its support for the move away from fossil fuels by organising an international conference together with the Netherlands. “More than ever, we now need a coalition of the willing. Despite all obstacles, moving away from fossil fuels must remain at the centre of discussions. In order to truly advance climate protection, a parallel process must also lead to concrete measures, which is only possible if potentials and barriers are explicitly identified,” Obergassel emphasises. In addition, progressive states should do everything in their power to ensure that the roadmaps Brazil plans to develop beyond the UNFCCC process will take centre stage at the next COP in Turkey.
“Apart from the concrete measures and roadmaps, these efforts can build on one of the few concrete advancements from Belém, namely the agreement to develop a mechanism to promote just structural change, the so-called Just Transition Mechanism,” adds Dr. Chris Höhne, Senior Researcher in the Global Climate Governance Research Unit at the Wuppertal Institute. The states agreed to kick off talks on the exact details at the next interim negotiations in Bonn mid-2026.
The Wuppertal Institute’s COP30 analysis report “The Bitter (COP of) Truth – Belém 2025 climate conference not up to the challenge” provides comprehensive insights into the results of COP30 and evaluates them. It is available free of charge via the link below.
Virtual Wuppertal Lunch on COP30 results
Researchers from the Wuppertal Institute will present their assessment of the COP results on 4 December 2025 from 12.00 to 14.00 CET at the digital Wuppertal Lunch “Global Mutirão vs. Geopolitical Crisis?”, and will discuss them with experts. The digital event will be held in English and is being organised in cooperation with Table.Briefings. Participation is free of charge, registration is open via the link below. After registration, participants will receive a confirmation email with additional information.
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Press Release
Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie gGmbH
VisdP: Prof. Dr.-Ing. Manfred Fischedick, President and Scientific Managing Director
Press contact: Christin Hasken, Head of Communications
Tel: +49 202 2492-187
Email: christin.hasken@wupperinst.org
Wolfgang Obergassel,
Co-Head of the Global Climate Governance Research Unit
Tel: +49 202 2492-149
wolfgang.obergassel@wupperinst.org
https://wupperinst.org/fa/redaktion/downloads/publications/COP30-Report_en.pdf Analysis report: The Bitter (COP of) Truth – Belém 2025 climate conference not up to the challenge
https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/4917625025675/WN_5QdJ0eT7TtKMuSTiSIVY8g Registration Wuppertal Lunch: Global Mutirão vs. Geopolitical Crisis?
https://wupperinst.org/en/topics/climate/cop/ World Climate Conference in Brazil
https://unfccc.int/ UNFCCC
https://cop30.br/en COP30 in Brazil
Cover Analysis report: The Bitter (COP of) Truth – Belém 2025 climate conference not up to the chall ...
Copyright: Wuppertal Institut
Analysis report: The Bitter (COP of) Truth – Belém 2025 climate conference not up to the challenge
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