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Even as farmers shift toward less water-intensive crops, climate change is pushing agricultural water consumption upward in Central Asia. A new study by IAMO researchers shows that rising temperatures and atmospheric water demand now outweigh land-use changes. As a result, the pressure on already scarce water resources is growing in one of the world’s most water-stressed regions.
Climate change outweighs crop shifts in Central Asia's water balance. Researchers reveal a clear and sobering trend for Central Asian agriculture: Climate change has substantially increased the water consumption of crops in the region, despite shifts toward less water-demanding crops. Focusing on the Amu Darya Basin, the region’s most important river system, the study analyzes satellite-based estimates of actual evapotranspiration from 1987 to 2019. The results show that total crop water consumption increased by 10% over this period, while average water use per hectare rose by 18%. The key driver is climate change. Rising temperatures and atmospheric water demand alone would have pushed up crop water consumption by 21% per hectare. Changes in cropping practices, most notably the shift from water-intensive summer crops such as cotton toward winter wheat, offset only about 3% of this increase.
“The findings underline that adaptation in agriculture has limits”, says IAMO researcher Daniela Peña-Guerrero, lead author of the study. “Even substantial shifts toward less water-intensive cropping cannot keep pace with the accelerating effects of climate change.”
Downstream regions of the Amu Darya Basin are particularly exposed. Water-intensive crops remain widespread, irrigation infrastructure is aging, and water stress is already severe. These conditions amplify the effects of rising temperatures and growing atmospheric water demand. The findings have global relevance. In irrigated dryland regions, improving water-use efficiency is essential in water-scarce basins, but efficiency gains and crop shifts alone cannot keep pace with climate change. Without decisive reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, water scarcity will continue to intensify, increasing risks for food production, rural livelihoods, and regional stability.
An interactive StoryMap allows readers to explore the spatial patterns and long-term trends in agricultural water use across the Amu Darya Basin: http://arcg.is/1DuW1u1
Detailed information can be found in the publication: Peña-Guerrero, M. D., Senay, G. B., Umirbekov, A., Tarasova, L., Rufin, P., Pulatov, B., Müller, D. (2026): Climate change has increased crop water consumption in Central Asia despite less water-intensive cropping. Communications Earth & Environment 7, 122. http://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-03142-y
About IAMO
The Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO) analyses economic, social and political processes of change in the agricultural and food sector, and in rural areas. The geographic focus covers the enlarging EU, transition regions of Central, Eastern and South Eastern Europe, as well as Central and Eastern Asia. IAMO works to enhance the understanding of institutional, structural and technological changes. Moreover, IAMO studies the resulting impacts on the agricultural and food sector as well as the living conditions of rural populations. The outcomes of our work are used to derive and analyse strategies and options for enterprises, agricultural markets and politics. Since its founding in 1994, IAMO has been part of the Leibniz Association, a German community of independent research institutes.
Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO)
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http://www.iamo.de/en
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-03142-y
https://www.iamo.de/en/press/press-releases/article/climate-change-is-driving-ri...
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