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Many countries have adopted ambitious climate protection targets, typically measuring progress through emissions reductions and the expansion of renewable energy. But according to a research team led by Germán Bersalli of the Research Institute for Sustainability, such indicators offer only limited insight. In Current Research in Environmental Sustainability, the researchers introduce a method designed to better capture the underlying drivers of change and apply it to four European countries. Their findings reveal a consistent pattern: despite measurable advances, none of the countries has yet achieved the comprehensive, system-wide transformation required for a fully CO₂-free energy system.
"The reduction in CO₂ emissions and the use of technologies are often cited when progress towards climate neutrality is assessed. While these metrics are important, they are not sufficient because the data does not reveal whether emissions have fallen due to structural changes, for example, or just short-term effects such as an economic downturn. The framework we have developed also reveals the causes of changes and not just the symptoms," explains Bersalli. It can therefore indicate where additional political measures are required.
New benchmarks for evaluating the energy transition
In order to capture the energy transition as a holistic system transformation, the researchers defined five areas: Zero-emission policy targets, phasing out carbon-intensive technologies, introducing CO₂-free technologies, transforming infrastructure and regulatory changes. Using this framework, the researchers analysed the electricity sector in four European countries that are considered energy transition leaders: Denmark, Germany, Norway and the United Kingdom.
"Clean electricity is essential for the decarbonisation of transport and heat supply. However, the challenge is not only to introduce key technologies on a large scale, but also to adapt regulations and develop the infrastructure needed for a broader systemic change," says Bersalli. The analysis of the four countries shows that Denmark and Norway are already advanced in several sectors, while Germany and the UK are lagging behind.
Four countries in comparison
Looking at the trend in the share of fossil fuels in electricity generation, it is evident that Norway and Denmark are on the right track. Norway already has an electricity grid that is powered almost entirely by renewable energy, primarily hydropower. Denmark has halved its carbon intensity over the last five years through consistent measures to phase out coal and gas whilst simultaneously expanding wind and solar energy; it aims to phase out coal by 2028 and uses very little gas.
Germany has significantly increased electricity generation from renewable energies. However, the expansion of the electricity grid and energy storage systems is still lagging behind. In the United Kingdom, the energy transition is only making slow progress. Energy policy is less ambitious overall compared to the pioneers.
Transformation is feasible
According to the authors, the comparison shows that individual advances are not enough. "Without a far-reaching transformation of the entire energy system, climate neutrality remains out of reach," says Bersalli. At the same time, the examples from Denmark and Norway show that decisive political measures can significantly accelerate the transformation.
Dr. Germán Bersalli
german.bersalli@rifs-potsdam.de
Bersalli, G., Gottheit, D., & Lilliestam, J. (2026). A simple yet holistic approach for assessing systemic change in sectoral zero-carbon transitions: The case of electricity in Europe. Current research in environmental sustainability, 11: 100342. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crsust.2026.100342.
Overview of the five components and the associated metrics to assess transition progress in the elec ...
Source: RIFS Potsdam
Copyright: Germán Bersalli, David Gottheit, Johan Lilliestam (2026)
Criteria of this press release:
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Economics / business administration, Energy, Environment / ecology, Politics
transregional, national
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