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The dynamics of support to Ukraine have slowed. Newly committed aid has researched a new low between August to October 2023—an almost 90 percent drop compared to the same period in 2022. Ukraine now increasingly relies on a core group of donors such as the US, Germany, and the Nordic and Eastern European countries that continue to pledge and deliver both financial aid and important weaponry, such as F-16 fighter jets. The outlook is unclear, since the largest pending aid commitment—by the European Union—has not been finally approved, and aid by the US has been on the decline.
These are results from the latest Ukraine Support Tracker update, which now covers commitments through October 31, 2023.
The period between August and October 2023 saw a stark drop in the amount of newly committed aid, with the value of new packages totaling just EUR 2.11 billion, an 87 percent drop compared to the same period in 2022 and the lowest amount since January 2022 (see figure 1). Of the 42 donors tracked, only 20 have committed new aid packages in the last 3 months, the smallest share of active donors since the start of the war. There have also been little new commitments by the European Union and the United States.
“Our figures confirm the impression of a more hesitant donor attitude in recent months. Ukraine is increasingly dependent on a few core donors that continue to deliver substantial support, like Germany, the US, or the Nordic countries. Given the uncertainty over further US aid, Ukraine can only hope for the EU to finally pass its long-announced EUR 50 billion support package. A further delay would clearly strengthen Putin's position,” says Christoph Trebesch (https://www.ifw-kiel.de/experts/christoph-trebesch/), head of the team producing the Ukraine Support Tracker (https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/) and director of a research center at the Kiel Institute.
The proposed new US aid package has been postponed until next year, and the approval of EU’s Ukraine Facility has stalled. The main remaining group of active donors are individual European countries, such as Croatia, Finland, Germany, Ireland, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and Switzerland, as well as NATO countries like Canada and the United Kingdom. Moreover, Ukraine can rely on the large previously pledged multi-year programs, that now account for the majority of actually delivered aid. For example, Denmark, Germany, and Norway, have delivered EUR 1.2 billion, EUR 1 billion, and EUR 662 million of military assistance, respectively, in the past 3 months as part of their previously committed multi-year schemes.
When focusing on committed military aid, the European Union countries continue to catch up, and now surpassed the United States. In particular Germany and the Nordic countries (Denmark, Norway, Sweden, and Finland) earmarked significant new assistance in the past months. (Figure 2 illustrates this by showing cumulative aid commitments of heavy weapons for each month since January 2022. Heavy weapons include, in particular, artillery, main battle tanks, multiple launch rocket systems, infantry fighting vehicles, air defense systems, and fighter jets.)
Of the total EUR 25 billion in heavy weapon commitments (Jan. 2022–Oct. 2023), the US accounts for 43 percent of the total value, while all EU countries and institutions together account for 47 percent, with the remainder coming from various other donors, in particular the United Kingdom and Canada. In the past 3 months (August, Sept., Oct.) the EU countries have committed EUR 780 million in heavy weapons, compared to EUR 500 million from the US. New pledges by Germany and the Nordic countries since August 2023 are driving this trend, in particular through new Patriot and IRIS-T air defense systems from Germany and 19 F-16 fighter jets from Denmark as part of a joint aviation coalition with the Netherlands and the UK. Other examples of EU military aid cooperation include new joint procurement agreements between the Netherlands, Denmark, and the Czech Republic to provide Ukraine with 15 modernized T-72EA main battle tanks, along with a series of joint procurement schemes by Nordic countries for the acquisition of 155mm ammunition.
“We generally observe a further shift towards military aid, in particular in the bilateral aid patterns,” Trebesch said. Among the top 10 donor countries, military aid now accounts for 58 percent of total aid (as of October 31, 2023). The US remains the largest military donor, with total commitments of EUR 44 billion. But Germany is catching up fast, with total military commitments now exceeding EUR 17 billion. Smaller countries, in particular Nordic countries and the Netherlands, also play a growing role in military aid.
About the Ukraine Support Tracker
The Ukraine Support Tracker (https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/) lists and quantifies military, financial, and humanitarian aid pledged to Ukraine since January 24, 2022 (currently through October 31, 2023). It covers 40 countries, specifically the EU member states, other members of the G7, as well as Australia, South Korea, Turkey, Norway, New Zealand, Switzerland, China, Taiwan, and India. Also, EU institutions are included as a separate donor. The tracker lists government-to-government commitments; private donations or those from international organizations such as the IMF are not included in the main database. Flows going into other countries like, for example, Moldova, are not included.
With regard to sources, the database combines official government sources with information from international media. Aid provided in kind, such as medical supplies, food, or military equipment, is quantified on the basis of market prices or information from previous crises involving government aid. In case of doubt, upper bounds of prices are used.
The Ukraine Support Tracker is constantly being expanded, corrected, and improved. Suggestions are very welcome and can be sent to ukrainetracker@ifw-kiel.de.
More information and detailed data can be found on this webpage: Ukraine Support Tracker (https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/)
For more information on the Ukraine Support Tracker methodology, read this working paper (https://www.ifw-kiel.de/de/publikationen/the-ukraine-support-tracker-which-count...)
Media Contact:
Guido Warlimont
Head of Communications
T +49 431 8814-629
guido.warlimont@ifw-kiel.de
Kiel Institute for the World Economy
Kiellinie 66 | 24105 Kiel | Germany
T +49 431 8814-774
E ifw-medien@ifw-kiel.de
www.ifw-kiel.de
Prof. Dr. Christoph Trebesch
Director International Finance and Macroeconomics
T +49 431 8814-577
christoph.trebesch@ifw-kiel.de
Aid commitments to Ukraine
Kiel Institute for the World Economy
Heavy weapon commitments
Kiel Institute for the World Economy
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Aid commitments to Ukraine
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