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Climate science has correctly predicted many aspects of the climate system and its response to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Recently discrepancies between the real world and our expectations of regional climate changes have emerged, as have disruptive new computational approaches. Researchers provide an interpretation for the situation suggesting the field is evolving and that embracing discrepancies is a key path forward.
As scientific fields evolve, dominant paradigms emerge. Discrepancies or anomalies also arise. These can often be accounted for but if they begin to accumulate, the dominant paradigm can be called into question leading to what philosophers of science call a crisis. For example, at the beginning of the 20th century, classical physics underwent such a crisis, whereupon quantum physics was developed. A recent example might be the current state of particle physics where an inability to find new elementary particles is forcing physicists to revisit assumptions in their standard model. And there have been signs that climate science is maturing and may be in an analogous situation, according to an analysis by Tiffany Shaw from The University of Chicago — previously a visiting scientist at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) — and MPI-M Director Bjorn Stevens.
What the authors describe as the dominant paradigm or "standard approach" of climate science has been developed over the last 60 years by applying fundamental laws of physics to the climate system under the assumption that small-scale processes are determined by statistical averages dependent on large scales (parameterization). This has allowed researchers to uncover the relatively simple physics governing the behavior of the complex climate system and led to the 2021 Nobel Prize in Physics being awarded to MPI-M founding director Klaus Hasselmann and the American climatologist Syukuro Manabe. "The standard approach has been extremely successful in explaining general features of the climate system and certain aspects of its response to increased carbon dioxide concentrations," says Tiffany Shaw. For example, it does an excellent job of describing and explaining the vertical structure of the atmosphere, and some aspects of the spatial pattern of warming of the Earth due to an increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide.
Regional climate change exposing discrepancies
As with the evolution of other scientific fields, discrepancies have emerged in climate science with respect to how regional climate change is evolving. For example, the eastern Tropical Pacific has cooled contrary to all model predictions. Neither was the increased frequency of blocking weather conditions over Greenland in summer anticipated. And even where changes were expected, scientists keep being surprised by their intensity: For example, although it was correctly predicted that the Arctic would warm faster than the rest of the globe, the observed Arctic amplification is greater than expected.
Much of what is initially surprising may well turn out to be explained in retrospect using the standard approach. But Shaw and Stevens argue discrepancies are also exposing knowledge gaps related to assumptions about how large- and small-scale processes and climate system components couple to one another. In particular, discrepancies are accumulating in the tropics where changes in the large-scale tropical circulation are known to grow out of instabilities that occur at small and intermediate scales. These scale-coupling mechanisms do not operate in the current generation of climate models.
An opportunity to advance, not a justification for inaction
It is yet unclear whether the regional discrepancies will persist but if they do and they accumulate, climate scientists might have to revisit the dominant paradigm. Shaw and Stevens argue that embracing discrepancies, as they inevitably arise through a more and increasingly comprehensive observational record, is a path forward. They offer a way to advance understanding of regional climate change and test new disruptive computational approaches. A renewed emphasis on the tried-and-true method of forming and testing hypotheses to develop theory will be necessary to anticipate changes in a warmer world.
"The challenge for conceptual work will be to identify which physics missing from the standard approach is most important for regional changes, and how to incorporate it," says Bjorn Stevens. Disruptive new computational approaches could play an important role here. For example, new types of climate models running on high-performance computers enable scale coupling mechanisms that are currently absent. Alternatively, machine learning could provide insight into coupling across spatial scales and climate system components using observations.
The authors point out that, crisis or no crisis, the science of how global temperatures will respond to increased concentrations of greenhouse gases is built on fundamental physical understanding. Global warming was also successfully predicted. Thus, accumulating discrepancies do not call the need for emission reduction policies into question. At the same time, confronting discrepancies on regional scales offers climate research an opportunity to deepen its understanding of the climate system, and most importantly the local manifestations of global warming – which is necessary to guide regional adaptation efforts and better assess the risk of catastrophic changes.
Prof. Dr. Tiffany Shaw, The University of Chicago: tas1@uchicago.edu
Prof. Dr. Bjorn Stevens, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology: bjorn.stevens@mpimet.mpg.de
Shaw, T.A., Stevens, B. The other climate crisis. Nature 639, 877–887 (2025). DOI: 10.1038/s41586-025-08680-1. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-08680-1
Regional manifestations of climate change are not always in agreement with scientists' expectations.
Y.Schrader, T. Shaw, B. Stevens/in: Shaw, T.A., Stevens, B. Nature 639, 877–887 (2025). DOI: 10.1038/s41586-025-08680-1
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Regional manifestations of climate change are not always in agreement with scientists' expectations.
Y.Schrader, T. Shaw, B. Stevens/in: Shaw, T.A., Stevens, B. Nature 639, 877–887 (2025). DOI: 10.1038/s41586-025-08680-1
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