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The natural phenomenon of upwelling, which occurs annually in the Gulf of Panama, failed for the first time on record in 2025. A study led by scientists from the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (STRI) and the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry indicates that the weakening of the trade winds was the cause of this event. This finding highlights the climate’s impact on fundamental oceanic processes and the coastal communities that depend on them.
During the dry season in Central America, northern trade winds generate upwelling events in the ocean waters of the Gulf of Panama. Upwelling is a process that allows cold, nutrient-rich waters from the depths of the ocean to rise to the surface. This dynamic supports highly productive fisheries and helps protect coral reefs from thermal stress. Thanks to this movement of water, the sea along Panama’s Pacific beaches remains cooler during the summer season.
Scientists from the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (STRI) and the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry have studied this phenomenon. Their records show that this seasonal upwelling, which occurs from January to April, has been a consistent and predictable feature of the gulf for at least 40 years. However, researchers recently recorded that in 2025, this vital oceanographic process did not occur for the first time. As a result, the typical drops in temperature and spikes in productivity during this time of year were diminished.
In the recently published article in the journal PNAS, scientists suggest that a significant reduction in wind patterns was the cause of this unprecedented event, revealing how climate disruption can quickly alter fundamental oceanic processes that have sustained coastal fishing communities for thousands of years.
No upwelling in 2025 due to less wind
Over the last 40 years, a continuous data set from the Physical Monitoring Program at STRI on the temperature of the surface waters of the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean off Panama shows a consistently recurring seasonal upwelling event up to and including 2024. In addition, the MPI for Chemistry's research yacht S/Y Eugen Seibold has been repeatedly collecting water samples and physical data on temperature and wind conditions since 2023. Analysis of these data sets showed that the trade winds in 2025 were not sufficient to break up the stratification of the sea surface and trigger upwelling. "For the first time, we have observed how changes in an atmospheric and oceanic circulation system exceed a threshold and lead to reduced biological production”, says Ralf Schiebel, group leader at the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry.
The lack of upwelling currents led to a failure in nutrient supply and correspondingly low algae growth, which has an impact on marine food webs and leads to a decline in commercial fishing, explains Ralf Schiebel. However, further research is needed to determine the exact cause and the possible consequences for fisheries.
“It is too early to conclude that the current climate and ocean warming could lead to reduced upwelling in the tropical eastern Pacific,” says Gerald Haug, Director of the Climate Geochemistry Department at the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry.
However, the study highlights the growing vulnerability of tropical upwelling systems, which, despite their enormous ecological and socioeconomic importance, remain poorly monitored, summarize the researchers involved in the study. It also underscores the urgency of strengthening ocean-climate observation and prediction capabilities in the planet’s tropical regions. Therefore, the research yacht S/Y Eugen Seibold is currently sailing in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean and is currently off the Galapagos Islands collecting data and samples.
Ralf Schiebel
Climate Chemistry Department
Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany
Phone: +49 6131 305-4100
Email: ralf.schiebel@mpic.de
Unprecedented suppression of Panama’s Pacific upwelling in 2025”, Aaron O’Dea, Andrew J. Sellers, Carmen Pérez-Medina, Javier Pardo Díaz, Alexandra Guzman Bloise, Christopher Pöhlker, Michał T. Chiliński , Hedy M. Aardema, Jonathan D. Cybulski, Lena Heins, Steven R. Paton, Hans A. Slagter, Ralf Schiebel, and Gerald H. Haug, PNAS 2025, Vol. 122 No. 0 e2512056122
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2512056122
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