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The Global Jobs Index provides the first-ever projection of where future jobs will be created. By 2030, the global number of jobs will increase by around 100 million—more than 75 million of them in Africa. In contrast, Europe’s working-age population and total employment are expected to decline. In countries like Kenya, almost full employment is projected by 2060.
By 2029, more than 100 million new jobs are expected worldwide, with the majority emerging in African countries. This is one of the key findings of the Global Jobs Index, developed jointly by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and the Hamburg-based social enterprise Impacc. The index is based on global datasets, including those from the International Labour Organization (ILO) and national statistical offices (see methodology below). It provides the first global calculation of where entirely new jobs—not replacements—will emerge in the coming years.
The data reveal that employment growth will be concentrated in Africa: by 2030, more than 75 million additional people on the continent will be working in jobs that pay above the absolute poverty line of USD 2.15 per day. In Asia, this number will rise by a net 21 million, in South America by 9 million, and in North America by 4 million. Oceania is expected to add 0.4 million new jobs above the poverty threshold. In aging Europe, by contrast, employment will shrink by 7 million—assuming unemployment rates remain stable.
Africa benefits from demographic growth
“Massive population growth combined with economic growth explains why Africa shows the strongest dynamics in job creation. In Asia and Europe, demographic aging slows down job growth,” explains Prof. Dr. Tobias Heidland, Research Director at the Kiel Institute, who specializes in global economic development and is scientifically responsible for the Global Jobs Index.
Unlike in the Global North, the creation of new jobs in the Global South represents a direct first step out of poverty. Across the countries of the Global South, around 320 million potential workers are still not employed in positions above the poverty line—either because they earn less than USD 2.15 a day or are unemployed. This so-called employment gap varies significantly between countries.
In Kenya, 22 percent of the population are currently either unemployed or working under the poverty line. In crisis-stricken Somalia, the figure reaches as high as 75 percent.
Kenya as a beacon of hope, Europe as an aging continent
Projections show that by 2060, Kenya’s employment gap will shrink to around 2 percent, while Somalia’s will remain high at around 63 percent. In both countries, most new opportunities are expected to take the form of gig jobs—small-scale or project-based work.
“Jobs that lift people out of absolute poverty are the first crucial step in economic development,” explains Till Wahnbaeck, founder of Impacc. “They are often informal and based on self-employment or part-time gigs. The next step is more productive, better-paid, and stable employment—jobs that create sustainable prosperity and social stability. The key to more jobs lies in young, growing companies across the continent.”
Shiela Birungi, Head of Ventures at Impacc, adds: “Kenya is already East Africa’s leader in services and technology. This brings many gig-type jobs, such as Uber drivers, but also innovation from startups tackling issues like food access or healthcare. Over time, this will lead to more knowledge-based and so-called ‘big jobs’—formal employment with greater financial security.”
And Europe? While still far removed from Africa’s poverty concerns, the number of new jobs emerging on the aging continent continues to decline. Yet, Europe could also benefit from Africa’s job boom: “It is conceivable to relocate certain types of work more strongly in order to address Europe’s skilled labor shortages. Investments in Africa simultaneously promote local economic independence and help to reduce migration pressure,” says Prof. Dr. Tobias Heidland from the Kiel Institute.
About the Global Jobs Index
The Global Jobs Index (GJI), a joint project of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and the social enterprise Impacc, provides for the first time comprehensive data on national employment trends from 2000 to 2060. Impacc is a philanthropic venture capital fund that invests donations into African startups at the base of the pyramid. The interactive index is available online at www.globaljobsindex.org.
Methodology
The Global Jobs Index (GJI) is primarily based on labor market data from the International Labour Organization (ILO) and national statistical offices (e.g., Labor Force Surveys) as well as World Development Indicators and World Bank country classifications. For long-term projections through 2060, the GJI relies on Shared Socio-Economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios—internationally recognized models of potential global development trajectories.
About the Kiel Institute for the World Economy
The Kiel Institute for the World Economy (https://www.kielinstitut.de/) is Germany’s leading research institute on global economic affairs and one of the most renowned institutions in Europe and worldwide in this field. It combines top-quality research comparable to that of leading universities with a visible and lasting influence on national and international economic policy.
About Impacc
Impacc (https://impacc.org) seeks to establish a new form of global aid—one that empowers rather than provides. The non-profit organization converts donations into investments in African startups, aiming to create sustainable jobs and increase local self-reliance. It invests in local founders with ideas for local markets, providing financial, technical, and operational support. The model combines elements of traditional development cooperation with the principles of venture capital. Founded by a team led by former Welthungerhilfe CEO Till Wahnbaeck, Impacc is based in Hamburg, Germany, with teams also operating in Kenya and Ethiopia.
Media Contact:
Mathias Rauck
Chief Communications Officer
T +49 431 8814-411
mathias.rauck@kielinstitut.de
Kiel Institute for the World Economy
Kiel Office
Kiellinie 66
24105 Kiel
Germany
Berlin Office
Chausseestraße 111
10115 Berlin
Germany
Contact
+49 431 8814-1
www.kielinstitut.de
Prof. Dr. Tobias Heidland
Director International Development
T +49 431 8814-367
tobias.heidland@kielinstitut.de
Dr. Till Wahnbaeck
Founder & CEO impacc
T +49 151 184 03 704
till@impacc.org
Where will the next 100 million jobs be created?
Copyright: Kiel Institute for the World Economy
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Where will the next 100 million jobs be created?
Copyright: Kiel Institute for the World Economy
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