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Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine jolted countries across Europe into action, but in many cases, security has been nationalised, with an overwhelming focus on deterrence and military readiness. A new KonKoop Report points to ways out of this impasse, especially in the states on NATO’s eastern flank.
The latest KonKoop In:Security Report starts with a diagnosis: ‘Europe’s security order is dysfunctional’. Instead of a unifying security architecture across the continent, we have a ‘fragmented notion of order and overlapping regional economic and security formats’. Without denying the need for deterrence, series editor Nadja Douglas invites us to think about how societal and individual fears and perceptions of security can be addressed, especially in the ‘in-between states torn between the European Union/NATO and Russia’. She argues that providing for their ‘ontological security’ – in short, a sense of predictability and certainty – will be crucial in any future peace arrangements. The latest ‘peace’ plan proffered by the US administration shows what can happen when these states are left out of the equation. European leaders must now provide a corrective to this lopsided vision of security.
Three case studies: Ukraine, Moldova and Poland
The report looks beyond the current one-sided approaches to security by focusing on security perspectives from ‘below’ and ‘in between’. Not surprisingly, deterrence is the order of the day in Ukraine. Yevgeniya Gaber describes a broad societal consensus on the need to amass enough military might to defend the country. Deterrence is also a key priority in NATO Eastern member Poland, where annual defence spending has increased to 4.7 per cent of GDP in recent years. Magdalena Jakubowska and Anna Kuczyńska find that while there is widespread support for this in the population, for the first time since 2022 a majority of Poles (55 per cent) now favours a quick resolution of the conflict, even if Ukraine has to cede territory to Russia. At just 1 per cent of GDP, Moldova’s annual defence spending pales in comparison with the rest of Europe. Denis Cenusa shows how the current Moldovan government has been paying more attention to other dimensions of security, including energy security and the fight against corruption and Russian disinformation. The victory of President Maia Sandu’s pro-EU party in the recent parliamentary elections suggests that this strategy is viable.
Peace: difficult but not unthinkable
In his contribution, Simon Weiß recommends certain tools for opening up avenues to a new security order in Europe. In the current culture of ‘megaphone diplomacy’, he argues for reviving ‘quiet diplomacy’ with Russia in the form of Track 2 and 1.5 dialogues, a format that has been proven to foster creative thinking, de-escalation and trust-building. Another tool is the ‘Peace Matrix’, a sequenced pathway for achieving security and sustainable peace in Ukraine and Europe. It breaks the peace process down into very concrete, non-negotiable steps, including security guarantees for Ukraine.
A further contribution by Weiß and Alexandra Dienes on public opinion data in Russia and Ukraine urges us to look more closely at public sentiment as an entry point for diplomatic progress. It shows how people in both countries share some common ground. For example, a significant majority of people in both countries are in favour of de-escalation measures like prisoner-of-war exchanges. And a significant minority of Russians (45 per cent) is willing to recognise Ukrainian sovereignty. Interestingly, younger Russians have a more conciliatory outlook on key issues. As Dienes and Weiß see it, this generational shift could ‘hold the promise of reconciliation in the long term’.
Report based on KonKoop workshop
Edited by Nadja Douglas, this fourth and last KonKoop In:Security Report is based on the KonKoop workshop ‘Vision(s) of Post-war European Security’ held on 22 January 2025 at ZOiS. The research network ‘Cooperation and Conflict in Eastern Europe’ (KonKoop) is funded by the Federal Ministry of Research, Technology and Space (BMFTR). KonKoop examines various conflict constellations and dynamics of cooperation in Eastern Europe, Southeast Europe, Central Asia and the Caucasus. It comprises six academic institutions from across Germany and is associated with many international partners. The Centre for East European and International Studies (ZOiS) is the project’s lead partner. At ZOiS, Nadja Douglas coordinates KonKoop’s In:Security topic line, which takes a bottom-up approach to security and insecurity. The results are published periodically in the KonKoop In:Security Reports.
Dr. Nadja Douglas nadja.douglas@zois-berlin.de
Nadja Douglas, Simon Weiß, Yevgeniya Gaber, Denis Cenusa, Magda Jakubowska, Anna Kuczyńska, Alexandra Dienes: Perspectives on European Security: From Below and In Between, KonKoop In:Security Report 2/2025.
https://konkoop.de/index.php/f/perspectives-on-european-security-from-below-and-...
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