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The financial and military support provided by other countries to Ukraine falls short of what is needed to stabilize the situation in the country under attack. Moreover, support comes in ad hoc and is hard to plan ahead for the Ukrainian government. This is evident from the data analysis for the latest update of the Ukraine Support Tracker. Overall, the dynamics of new commitments are waning. Weapons or financial aid continue to be provided only after a very long delay.
The momentum of further commitments to Ukraine is slowing. In the additional period covered in the latest Ukraine Support Tracker release (June 8 to July 1), only few new pledges were added, and they were less substantial. The largest single new commitment is military assistance from the United Kingdom of € 1.5 billion. We now record total commitments of 80.7 billion euros. This figure has only increased by a about three percent since the last update.
What is striking is the large gap between pledged and delivered support. Both military and financial deliveries still fall short of what Ukraine says it needs and what was promised to the country.
”In the face of heavy artillery attacks, Ukraine mostly needs multiple rocket launchers and howitzers to defend itself. Both weapons delivered and weapons pledged fall well short of the needs Ukraine has formulated. Russia's stocks are much higher anyway,” says Christoph Trebesch, research center director at Kiel Institute and head of the team compiling the Ukraine Support Tracker.
”Financial assistance to Ukraine is still being disbursed too slowly to stabilize the country's budget in the short and medium term. What is needed are mostly grants that are disbursed according to a reliable schedule. Only then will the government in Kiev be able to plan its budget. International donor conferences are increasingly focusing on reconstruction programs for Ukraine. While these are important, the country must first be able to address the most urgent current needs,” says Trebesch.
”The West, and the EU in particular, should establish a central planning office for assistance to Ukraine so that commitments to the country are coordinated and thus can be planned for by the government in Kiev. Currently, a national approach dominates. However, for both military and budget planning, the government of Ukraine needs a reliable timetable for when support will reach the country,” says Trebesch.
About the Ukraine Support Tracker
The Ukraine Support Tracker lists and quantifies military, financial, and humanitarian aid pledged to Ukraine since January 24, 2022 (currently through July 1, 2022). This new update covers 37 countries, specifically the EU member states, other members of the G7, as well as the newly added countries of Australia, South Korea, Turkey, Norway, New Zealand, and Switzerland. Also, EU institutions are included as a separate donor. The tracker lists government-to-government commitments; private donations or those from international organizations such as the IMF are not included in the main database. Flows going into other countries like, for example, Moldova, are not included.
With regard to sources, the database combines official government sources with information from international media. Aid provided in kind, such as medical supplies, food, or military equipment, is quantified on the basis of market prices or information from previous crises involving government aid. In case of doubt, upper bounds of prices are used.
The Ukraine Support Tracker is constantly being expanded, corrected, and improved. Suggestions are very welcome and can be sent to ukrainetracker@ifw-kiel.de.
For more information on the Ukraine Support Tracker methodology, read this working paper (https://www.ifw-kiel.de/index.php?id=17204&L=0)
Media Contact:
Guido Warlimont
Head of Communications
T +49 431 8814-629
guido.warlimont@ifw-kiel.de
Kiel Institute for the World Economy
Kiellinie 66 | 24105 Kiel | Germany
T +49 431 8814-774
F +49 431 8814-500
www.ifw-kiel.de
Prof. Dr. Christoph Trebesch
Director International Finance and Macroeconomics
T +49 431 8814-577
christoph.trebesch@ifw-kiel.de
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