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Wuppertal Institute publishes initial assessment of COP29 in Baku – a setback was avoided barely
The 29th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29) concluded in the early morning of 24 November 2024. After much conflict, the conference adopted a "New Collective Quantified Goal" (NCQG) for climate finance. However, the new finance goal falls far short of the actual financing needs. In addition, the conference failed to further solidify the signal for the global energy transition agreed at last year’s conference in Dubai – including the transition away from fossil fuels. Researchers from the Wuppertal Institute attended the conference and have summarised the key outcomes of the negotiations.
Wuppertal, 28 November 2024: After Egypt in 2022 and the United Arab Emirates in 2023, this year's conference was held in Azerbaijan, another fossil fuel producing state – whose president Ilham Alijew described oil and gas as a "gift from God" in his introduction to the conference, thus directly setting the course for a conference geared more towards confrontation than cooperation. The way in which Azerbaijan chaired the COP was also not very constructive for international negotiation processes. The presidency was repeatedly criticised for failing to steer the negotiations in the necessary progressive direction in light of the immense pressure to act, and for neglecting to actively involve all relevant stakeholders in the development of draft resolutions.
Above all, however, the conference outcome fell substantially short of what is required to achieve the objectives of the Paris Agreement. All in all, it must be said that a setback compared to previous climate conferences was barely avoided and no real progress was made. The most positive news is that, despite the various geopolitical tensions, the international community was able to reach an agreement at all. "The final agreement of COP29 is therefore anything but a 'gift from God'. It does not create the urgently needed momentum to pave the way for a substantial reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions. At a time when there’s a high probability that this year global mean temperature will be more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for an entire year for the first time, this is more than a great disappointment," says Prof. Dr. Manfred Fischedick, President and Scientific Director of the Wuppertal Institute.
No sufficient funding for climate protection and dealing with the impacts of climate change
The outcome of COP29 regarding the new climate finance target, the "New Collective Quantified Goal" (NCQG), stipulates that industrialised countries should increase their climate finance for developing countries to USD 300 billion per year by 2035. This result falls far short of what developing countries demanded: supported by scientific studies, they had called for a total amount of USD 1.3 trillion annually by 2035. "It therefore remains unclear how developing countries are to achieve their national climate targets and be enabled to better adapt to climate change," explains Carsten Elsner, researcher in the Global Climate Governance Research Unit at the Wuppertal Institute. To this end, it is important that financially strong emerging economies such as China and the Arab states, which contribute significantly to climate change alongside the traditional industrialised countries, shoulder an adequate share of the costs. One positive takeaway from Baku is that they appear to have given up their fundamental opposition to contributing to the climate financing target.
"Not only the amount of funding pledged, but also the quality of climate finance remains inadequate, as all sources of funding are included in the new target," adds Elsner and further elaborates: "It is to be expected that the majority of climate financing will continue to be paid in the form of loans. However, the poorest countries and those most affected by climate change primarily need grants rather than further loans, given their generally already high debt levels." Accordingly, the NCQG now adopted in Baku is not only clearly too low, it also lacks binding minimum requirements for the proportion of grants or upper limits for the proportion of loans. In addition, a clearer prioritisation would have been necessary to ensure that the funds benefit the poorest and most vulnerable countries in particular. Furthermore, the earmarking of funds also remains problematic: to date, significantly more funds have gone towards reducing emissions, although the Paris Agreement aims for an equal distribution between avoiding emissions and adapting to climate change. In view of the increasingly severe consequences of climate change, a binding mechanism that obliges countries to actually achieve this goal is lacking.
The outcome of COP29 has therefore shown that those countries that have contributed the most to global warming are still not willing to pay in full for the climate change they have caused. Instead, the burden of negotiation has been pushed to future conferences – a deeply unsatisfactory situation for the millions of people who are already suffering from the effects of the climate crisis.
No mention of transition
The conference also failed to provide further guidance for the revision of nationally determined contributions (NDCs). According to the Paris Agreement, states must formulate more ambitious targets by February 2025. To the contrary, Saudi Arabia and other countries successfully blocked all attempts to further build on the energy transition outcomes of COP28 in Dubai: In particular, there was no powerful confirmation of the agreement reached in Dubai that climate protection urgently requires a gradual transition away from fossil fuels.
Overall, 2024 has once again shown that the main obstacles to climate protection are not technical and economic, but political and institutional in nature: Although renewable energies and electromobility are becoming increasingly cost competitive and their expansion is accelerating rapidly – it is this very success of the energy transition that is generating a massive political backlash from fossil fuel interest groups, who see their sales markets disappearing. In Baku, this counter-movement successfully slowed down the implementation of the results of the conference in Dubai. This is a setback for global climate protection and can be attributed not least to the consensus principle of the climate negotiations. More than ever before, it is therefore necessary to reflect on whether real progress in global climate protection requires courageous action of a "coalition of the willing".
Despite all the resistance that once again came to light in Baku, the trend towards more climate-friendly technologies will continue, even based on pure economics. And one can expect that the Brazilian conference presidency next year will be more committed and more successful than the Azerbaijani presidency in translating the real transformation momentum into a more successful outcome.
Virtual Wuppertal Lunch
Today, on 28 November 2024, from 12.30 p.m. CET, researchers at the Wuppertal Institute will present their assessment of the COP results at the digital Wuppertal Lunch "More Money, Less Problems? A Review of COP29", organised in cooperation with Table.Briefings, and discuss it with experts. Participation is free of charge, registration is possible via the link below.
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Press Release
Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie gGmbH
Responsible for content: Prof. Dr. Manfred Fischedick, Scientific Managing Director
Contact: Luisa Lucas, Deputy Head of Public Relations
Tel: +49 202 2492-292
E-mail: luisa.lucas@wupperinst.org
Wolfgang Obergassel, Co-Head of the Global Climate Governance Research Unit
Tel: +49 202 2492-149
Email: wolfgang.obergassel@wupperinst.org
https://wupperinst.org/fa/redaktion/downloads/publications/COP29-Report_en.pdf Analysis report: COP29 – not a "gift from God"
https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/9717307290702/WN_AFY2HvQkRIaTLRbvK93kUA... Registration for the Wuppertal Lunch "More Money, Less Problems? A Review of COP29"
Cover Analysis report COP29: Not a "Gift from God"
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