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New research presented at the EGU General Assembly 2025 reveals how Saharan dust impacts solar energy generation in Europe. Dr. György Varga and his team from Hungarian and European institutions found that dust from North Africa reduces photovoltaic (PV) power output by scattering sunlight, absorbing irradiance, and promoting cloud formation. Their study, based on field data from 46 dust events between 2019 and 2023, highlights the difficulty of predicting PV performance during these events. Conventional forecasting tools often fail, so the team suggests integrating real-time dust load data and aerosol-cloud coupling into models for better solar energy scheduling and preparedness.
As Europe increases its reliance on solar energy to meet climate and energy security targets, a growing atmospheric phenomenon is complicating the path forward: Saharan dust. New research presented at the European Geosciences Union General Assembly (EGU25) shows that mineral dust carried on the wind from North Africa is not only reducing photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation across Europe but also making it harder to predict. In their presentation at EGU25, The shadow of the wind: photovoltaic power generation under Europe’s dusty skies, Dr. György Varga and collaborators from Hungarian and European institutions reveal how dust-laden skies disrupt PV performance and challenge existing forecasting models. Their work, grounded in field data from more than 46 Saharan dust events between 2019 and 2023, spans both Central Europe (Hungary) and Southern Europe (Portugal, Spain, France, Italy, and Greece).
The Sahara releases billions of tonnes of fine dust into the atmosphere every year, and tens of millions of tonnes reach European skies. These particles scatter and absorb sunlight, reduce irradiance at the surface, and can even promote cloud formation — all of which degrade PV output. The researchers found that conventional forecasting tools, which use static aerosol climatologies, frequently miss the mark during these events. Instead, the team recommends integrating near-real-time dust load data and aerosol-cloud coupling into forecasting models. This would allow for more reliable scheduling of solar energy and better preparedness for the variability introduced by atmospheric dust.
“There’s a growing need for dynamic forecasting methods that account for both meteorological and mineralogical factors,” says Varga.
“Without them, the risk of underperformance and grid instability will only grow as solar becomes a larger part of our energy mix.”
Beyond atmospheric effects, the team also points out to the long-term impacts of dust on the physical infrastructure of solar panels, including contamination and erosion — factors that can further reduce efficiency and increase maintenance costs. This research contributes to ongoing efforts in Hungary and the EU to improve climate resilience and renewable energy management. It is supported by the National Research, Development and Innovation Office (FK138692), the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, and the EU-funded National Multidisciplinary Laboratory for Climate Change.
Note to the media
When reporting on this story, please mention the EGU General Assembly 2025, which is taking place from 27 April – 02 May 2025.
This paper will be presented in full CL4.14 session at EGU25 on Friday, Friday, 02 May, 10:59–11:01 (CEST). If reporting online, please include a link to the abstract: https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/EGU25-9264.html
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The European Geosciences Union (EGU) is Europe’s premier geosciences union, dedicated to the pursuit of excellence in the Earth, planetary, and space sciences for the benefit of humanity, worldwide. It is a non-profit interdisciplinary learned association of scientists founded in 2002 with headquarters in Munich, Germany. The EGU publishes a number of diverse scientific journals, which use an innovative open access format, and organises several topical meetings, and education and outreach activities. Its annual General Assembly is the largest and most prominent European geosciences event, attracting over 19,000 scientists from all over the world. The meeting’s sessions cover a wide range of topics, including volcanology, planetary exploration, the Earth’s internal structure and atmosphere, climate, energy, and resources. The EGU General Assembly 2025 is taking place in Vienna, Austria and European Geosciences Union Press Releases 2025 Vienna, Austria and Online | 27 April – 02 May 2025 | media@egu.eu While media briefings and sessions are hosted by the EGU, research presented at the General Assembly is the responsibility of each presenter and does not necessarily reflect the views of the EGU. online from 27 April – 02 May 2025. For information and press registration, please click here. If you wish to receive our press releases via email, please use the Press Release Subscription Form. Subscribed journalists and other members of the media receive EGU press releases under embargo (if applicable) 24 hours in advance of public disseminate EGU25 website (https://www.egu25.eu/) has a tab titled ‘Media’ where you will find the full list of press conferences and presentations of media interest. We encourage members of the press to browse the virtual EGU25 Press Centre (https://www.egu.eu/gamedia/2025/) for our Media Tip Sheets and Media Highlights of the General Assembly 2025.
About the EGU
The European Geosciences Union (EGU) is the leading organisation for Earth, planetary and space science research in Europe. With our partner organisations worldwide, we foster fundamental geoscience research, alongside applied research that addresses key societal and environmental challenges. Our vision is to realise a sustainable and just future for humanity and for the planet. The annual EGU General Assembly is the largest and most prominent European geosciences event, attracting over 19,000 scientists from all over the world. The meeting’s sessions cover a wide range of topics, including volcanology, planetary exploration, the Earth’s internal structure and atmosphere, climate, as well as energy and resources. For more information about the meeting please check media.egu.eu or follow EGU on social media.
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