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Berlin, 30 September 2025 – The privatisations of East German state companies via Treuhand deserve a grade of satisfactory. That is the opinion of economist Moritz Lubczyk from the Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin) on the 35th anniversary of reunification. ‘The Treuhand didn't mess everything up, but it didn't solve everything perfectly either. It could possibly have saved more companies and more jobs.’ This is what his extensive calculations have shown. ‘If the Treuhand had specifically selected the companies with the highest chances of survival, almost 97 per cent of the privatised companies would still have been on the market after ten years. In fact, only 67 per cent were,’ he says.
The difference is particularly clear when it comes to jobs: almost 300,000 additional jobs could have been saved. In reality, the privatised companies initially had only around one million jobs. ‘However, it remains unclear whether all jobs would actually have been preserved in the long term, as even the best companies were unable to predict future developments,’ says Lubczyk.
‘At the same time, the Treuhand also avoided the worst-case scenario,’ adds Lubczyk: if it had selected the companies with the lowest chances of survival, only a good 55 per cent of the companies would have remained on the market after ten years instead of 67 per cent. ‘If you were to give the Treuhand a school grade based on what we know today, it would be a 3 – satisfactory,’ says Lubczyk.
He explains that the Treuhand often made its decisions based on the productivity of the companies: companies with higher productivity were more likely to be privatised. This was in line with a pragmatic rule of thumb and reflected the Treuhand's legal mandate, which stipulated that it should focus on the competitiveness of the companies.
His study also shows clear differences within the Treuhand. The head office in Berlin was more successful in selecting companies than the regional branches. The companies privatised by the head office survived more often and secured more jobs. ‘The head office probably had better resources, more expertise and closer contacts than the regional offices, which suffered more from time and staff shortages,’ says Lubczyk.
Dr. Moritz Lubczyk; ml@rfberlin.com; 0049 0151 143 444 67
‘The Big Sell: Privatising East Germany's Economy’ by Lukas Mergele, Moritz Hennicke and Moritz Lubzcyk, in: Journal of Public Economics, Volume 242, February 2025, 105291;
doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105291
https://Publication on RFBerlin: www.rfberlin.com/treuhand-assesment
https://Industrial policy lessons from East Germany’s privatisation
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