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If refugee movements across borders occur as a result of the wars involving Iran and Lebanon, Germany is the likely destination for the largest share of arrivals. Canda is another preferred destination, with Britain, Turkey, France, and Australia following. This is the result of a new report by the Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin).
Germany is the most popular destination for potential emigrants from Iran (28 percent mention it as the most likely destination), followed by Canada with 13 percent, Turkey with 10 percent, the UK with 6 percent and France with 6.0 percent. For Lebanese respondents, Canada ranks first with 16 percent, followed by Germany with 14 percent, Australia with 11 percent, France with 9 percent and the US with 8 percent. These figures are Gallup World Poll figures measuring intended destinations in 2024.
Migration aspirations line up closely with settlements of recent refugees from the two countries. By the end of 2025. 29 percent of Iranian refugees lived in Germany, ahead of the UK with 26 percent, Canada with 8 percent and Austria with 5 percent. Among Lebanese refugees, Germany also ranks first with 34 percent, followed by Canada with 12 percent, Denmark with 10 percent and France with 6 percent. These figures are from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).
“Migration patterns tend to build on existing links between origin and destination countries,” Christian Dustmann, Director of RFBerlin and Professor of Economics at University College London, and co-author of the study. “This reflects the importance of diaspora networks, which reduce the costs and risks associated with migration.”
“The geography of migration intentions closely mirrors the geography of existing refugee communities,” adds Tommaso Frattini, Deputy Director of the Centre of Research of Migration (CReAM) at RFBerlin, Professor of Economics at the University of Milan, and co-author of the study. “This suggests that if displacement increases in the current crisis, migration is likely to follow the corridors that are already established.”
Migration aspirations do not automatically translate into migration flows. “Practical constraints may influence migration outcomes in the early stages of a crisis” explains Professor Dustmann. “Long-distance destinations such as Canada, Australia, and the United States are more difficult to reach. It is therefore likely that Europe, and in particular Germany, will be the destination for the largest share of potential refugee flows if displacement increases as a consequence of the war.”
Prof. Christian Dustmann, 0044 7818 048 380; cd@rfberlin.com
Prof. Tommaso Frattini, 0039 02 50 321 535; tf@rfberlin.com
“Migration Aspirations, Diaspora Networks and Refugee Destinations from Iran and Lebanon” by Camilla Piovesan, Tommaso Frattini and Christian Dustmann; CReAM Report 2/2026; published here: CReAM-at-RFBerlin-Report-02-2026-Migration-Aspirations-Destinations-and-Diaspora.pdf
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