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Offshore wind energy generation is a central pillar of Europe’s energy transition. At the same time, it is placing increasing demands on the models that are expected to reliably predict future wind power production and its impacts on the atmosphere. A study by the Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon now shows that both atmospheric boundary conditions and technical decisions made during the development of wind farms can lead to significant differences. The various turbine parameters have a particularly strong influence on the calculations, as the associated reduction in wind speeds has a substantial impact on the results. The researchers’ findings were published in the journal Wind Energy Science.
For the study, the established regional model COSMO6.0 CLM was further developed and combined with an expanded wind farm module that offers greater flexibility than previous versions. For the first time, different turbine types and rotor sizes, as well as staggered commissioning schedules of individual wind farms over time, can be represented within a single model. In parallel, the researchers investigated how the spatial arrangement of turbine arrays affects the simulated total power production.
Larger turbines alter both the wind field and energy yields
“The results show that, assuming a total installed capacity of 150 gigawatts in the North Sea, there are clear differences in the simulated power production. The differences between the scenarios amount to around 15 gigawatts in total, which corresponds to a remarkable 10 percent of the overall capacity,” says Prof Corinna Schrum, who contributed to the study as head of the Hereon Institute of Coastal Systems – Analysis and Modelling.
The largest deviations occur between different turbine types, particularly between older models with lower rated capacity and modern installations with very large rotors. The technological shift toward ever larger turbines shows pronounced effects. The study compares two extreme cases: small 3.6 MW turbines and modern 15 MW turbines.
Extended wake effects assumed
A key aspect of the study is the analysis of the wake effects behind wind turbines, which are characterized by reduced wind speeds and increased turbulence, as the turbines extract kinetic energy from the wind. As shown in previous studies – including those conducted by Hereon – the wake effects of wind farms can extend more than 50 kilometers downstream of the wind farms, significantly reducing wind speeds in those areas. However, until now, the influence of different boundary conditions used to drive regional simulations has largely been neglected in those studies. Additionally, it was demonstrated for the first time that realistic modeling of wind fields under the influence of the wind farms built between 2008 and 2021 could be performed, with variations of approximately 20 % depending on the location, weather conditions, and wind farm configuration.
The results of the study have direct relevance for offshore wind power planning and for forecasting the total amount of offshore wind energy to be generated. They provide an assessment of the accuracy of simulation results and show that different modeling approaches can lead to substantially different forecasts: wind farms need to be explicitly represented in both weather forecasting models and the generation of historical, so-called reanalysis data. To achieve a realistic assessment of energy yields and to adequately address the ecological and infrastructural context of future expansion, it is essential to take these uncertainties into account.
Cutting-edge research for a changing world
Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon’s scientific research aims at preserving a world worth living in. To this end, around 1000 employees generate knowledge and research new technologies for greater resilience and sustainability - for the benefit of the climate, the coast and people. The path from idea to innovation leads through a continuous interplay between experimental studies, modeling and AI to digital twins that map the diverse parameters of climate and coast or human biology in the computer. This is an interdisciplinary approach that spans from the fundamental scientific understanding of complex systems to scenarios and practical applications. As an active member of national and international research networks and the Helmholtz Association, Hereon supports politics, business and society in shaping a sustainable future by transferring the expertise it has gained.
Prof Corinna Schrum
Head of Institute
Institute of Coastal Systems – Analysis and Modeling
Tel.: +49 (0)4152 87 – 1833
Mail: corinna.schrum@hereon.de
https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-1077-2026
The further developed model provided the researchers with greater flexibility.
Quelle: Reegan Fraser via unsplash
Copyright: Reegan Fraser
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