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A team led by Prof Simon Lux (University of Münster and Fraunhofer Research Institution for Battery Cell Production) has analysed the future energy demand associated with the EU's goal of strengthening local battery supply chains in Europe. According to their projections, Europe will have to generate significant amounts of energy for local battery cell production.
Europe accounts for around 25 percent of global electric vehicle sales. Despite the high demand, only around 6.8 percent of the energy required for cell production is currently supplied in Europe. Most of the energy is imported in the form of materials and battery cells. A team led by Prof Simon Lux (University of Münster and Fraunhofer Research Institution for Battery Cell Production) has now analysed the future energy requirements associated with the European Union’s (EU) goal of strengthening European battery supply chains. In order to achieve self-sufficiency by 2050, the researchers predict the EU will have to meet an annual increase in energy demand for local battery cell production from the current level of around 3.5 terawatt hours (TWh) per year to 250 TWh annually. This would only be possible if a well-developed recycling infrastructure were in place by then. In addition, Europe would need 200 to 250 TWh to charge electric vehicles and compensate for efficiency losses when discharging batteries for electric vehicles and stationary storage systems. Nevertheless, the increasing energy demand for lithium- and sodium-ion batteries would be offset by 90 TWh of upstream fossil fuel energy.
“Strengthening local battery supply chains is crucial to reducing energy dependence,” emphasises Simon Lux. “However, it also requires the supply of significant amounts of energy in Europe.” Battery-based electricity demand is growing disproportionately compared to total electricity demand, which will require major investments in renewable electricity generation and the corresponding infrastructure.
It will also be crucial for Europe to maximise battery recycling rates and recycling efficiency to reduce import dependency and future energy demand. The researchers assume that there will be significant recycling capacity in Europe (approx. 800 gigawatt hours of battery capacity are expected to be recycled annually from 2050 onwards). This could reduce the energy required for battery production in Europe by 33 to 46 percent. However, the current recycling infrastructure is still in its early stages of development. The researchers therefore conclude that European policymakers need to implement effective regulations that enable companies to develop viable and sustainable recycling capabilities.
The study is based on a life-cycle assessment analysis utilising data from recent research studies and the ecoinvent database. In addition, the research team performed the energy demand analysis using a simulation model, developed by the Institute of Business Administration at the Department of Chemistry and Pharmacy at the University of Münster, which represents a simplified battery circular economy.
Simon Lux is a professor of applied electrochemical energy storage technology and business chemistry at the University of Münster and an institute director of the Fraunhofer Research Institution for Battery Cell Production FFB.
Prof Simon Lux
University of Münster and Fraunhofer Research Institution for Battery Cell Production FFB
E-Mail: simon.lux@ffb.fraunhofer.de
Lukas Ihlbrock, Anne Sehnal, Moritz Gutsch and Simon Lux (2025): Future energy demand for automotive and stationary lithium- and sodium-ion battery production towards a European circular economy. Energy and Environmental Science; https://doi.org/10.1039/D5EE02287H
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